What is more likely now is this thing is going back to 1800s, beyond that, who knows?
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Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$
- Thread starter makloda
- Start date
What is more likely now is this thing is going back to 1800s, beyond that, who knows?
Are you long TVIX?
Yea...
It will stop at 1800 again until proven otherwise. Nobody can predict a breakout before it happens.
But that is a part of the danger. The S&P has rallied around 15% in 6 weeks in a declining earnings environment. Most of the gains have been off of corporate buybacks and short covering. Funds have been selling into this rally (from what I've read). In an overbought market with so much downside "potential", earning next to nothing would be a better alternative than losing 30-40%...but I go back to why I say this is the most dangerous market I've ever seen...Those who have been "ZIRP'd" and herded into equities have few alternatives to generate returns...so these people are essentially trapped in a damned if they do, damned if they don't environment...
This ain't stopping at 1800 next time
Agree. It's going to slice right through 1800
1600 is certainly possible
What is more likely now is this thing is going back to 1800s, beyond that, who knows?
How much more do people want to squeeze out of this market ...from a low of under 700 in 2009 to over 2000 in 5+ years how much more do you think is left?
The only reason for the bull market is the fed and also the corporate buybacks... Strip those out and the S$P would still be under 1000.
August 24th to be exact.....they say those are rare occurrences that have been huge buying opportunities... I think however there will be a time that happens where people jump into the market only to see it go into a straight bear market for years....
And few still recall the catalyst...Yep, per usual Ole Yellen...On that prior Wednesday, during an OpEx she said something "hawkish" or the algo's interpreted it as such (during a very quiet market seasonal) and everyone headed for the exit's at the same time...One could probably argue that it scared the living hell out of her and she now relegates the "hawk talk" to her cohorts in random soundbites during periods of market exuberance.
This market literally does not even function without some CB catalyst.
How much more do people want to squeeze out of this market ...from a low of under 700 in 2009 to over 2000 in 5+ years how much more do you think is left?
The only reason for the bull market is the fed and also the corporate buybacks... Strip those out and the S$P would still be under 1000.
It really hasn't been about what people want to take out of the market...It's pure politics, engineered outcomes and price setting.
And few still recall the catalyst...Yep, per usual Ole Yellen...On that prior Wednesday, during an OpEx she said something "hawkish" or the algo's interpreted it as such (during a very quiet market seasonal) and everyone headed for the exit's at the same time...One could probably argue that it scared the living hell out of her and she now relegates the "hawk talk" to her cohorts in random soundbites during periods of market exuberance.
This market literally does not even function without some CB catalyst.
Agree.....it's been the central banks now since 2008 or so?
That's why this market is a f*cking playground... If s not a real market anymore..the real market probably disappeared 2 or 3 decades ago... some will say since the beginning of the fed ...aside from that there is going to be a time where the market is the market and no matter what central bank intervenes there will zero solutions to the problem... It's a broken system. No one realizes it yet but in due time it will show.
We have to break 1970 before then. One day at a time. We could rally from here.Agree. It's going to slice right through 1800
1600 is certainly possible
How much more do people want to squeeze out of this market ...from a low of under 700 in 2009 to over 2000 in 5+ years how much more do you think is left?
The only reason for the bull market is the fed and also the corporate buybacks... Strip those out and the S$P would still be under 1000.
Strip those out... yea just exactly how is that supposed to happen? Company execs aren't going to stop borrowing money to buy back stocks as long as interest rates remain low, or negative in some circumstances, and the fed isn't going to stop supporting this market either.