Because we are talking about 0.25%. 0.50% at most. If Fed doesn't, it can only mean one thing: They can not. Just think about it for a minute. The situation will be perceived as so f&#$ed up, that Fed is afraid of everything going to hell because they raised the rate from zero to 0.25% or 0.50%. Hence, it will be sell everything if they don't raise the rate.
Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$
- Thread starter makloda
- Start date
Can you guarantee the outcome? Otherwise it's just an opinion.
Of course it is just an opinion.
Actually, bonds are implying a 0.50% hike with higher probability than just a 0.25% hike. From CME FedWatch page. So there will be more tantrums to be had if the hike is just 0.25%
Edit: It seems I was mistaken. "Probability of no change in the target rate is shown by the 0.25 bar. The effective Fed Funds rate typically trades somewhere in the middle of the target range". So we are looking at 0.25% ike with 83% probability, and 17% as no hike. My bad.
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Hike is a done deal unless the dow crashes 1000pts before FOMC.
What is going to matter is whether the fed is going to bring down their forecast of future fed funds rate a.k.a median dot plot. I'm going to stay the hell away from this because I know the bots will be trading this as the dot plots are released.
What is going to matter is whether the fed is going to bring down their forecast of future fed funds rate a.k.a median dot plot. I'm going to stay the hell away from this because I know the bots will be trading this as the dot plots are released.
guarantee which outcome?
rate hike looks certain
Naz/Dow down hard last week looks certain to bounce
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Positive reaction to a hike?
IMHO it makes sense to fade any sudden moves that day (with a caution).
yeah, i agree...no chance of 0.5 per cent hike though.
IMO it's a mistake to think that stock market's upside performance is pinned to the potential hike as if it's some sort of psychological issue. Can US government afford this hike as the national debt has doubled since 2007? Raising by just 0.25% will immediately increase current national debt repayment by $900 billion per year.
fully agree, I was looking at the Naz bounce on technical. Rate hike psychology is mostly to remove that uncertainty. I very much doubt they hike any more for quite so time and market knows this.
So after the hike we revert back to a dovish psychology with Japan and Europe more QE and Fed inaction. Buy and hold types may mistake this as "hike is bullish".
if you listened to me you'd be up 50+ points on ES and 1.5 pts on crude