Nov 3-16 was orderly...I don't see this as orderly.
Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$
- Thread starter makloda
- Start date
Nov 3-16 was orderly...I don't see this as orderly.
A lot less 'vacuum pockets', when there is a clear absence of bids.
Right, but what I'm saying is that the Aug decline started like this, on the Wednesday of Yellen's comments (Aug 19th, I believe)...Again, I'm not going to predict it turns into Aug 24th, just that the "speed" of this decline is similar...lots of trendlines broken, etc, etc...and that failed re-test up around 2100-10 area...
just buy the dip
negative rates, where's the money going to go? equities
negative rates, where's the money going to go? equities
Probably another repeat performance of last night...Let me venture a guess...maybe 2066-67 area on ES in the middle of the night.
Said it before and I'll say it again
Zero risk is now on the short side
...For a while anyways
Zero risk is now on the short side
...For a while anyways
The fact that they slipped the first hint in the middle of the night during Thanksgiving holiday (China 5% drop) suggests a nod and a tip to the downside below the 2100 to 2050 channel but all that would do is set-up an inaction instead of a hike on Dec 16? A hike in this type of environment would allow another Aug 24.
Regardless, looks like the dip will continue for some days (abit mostly in the middle of the night and coming back as the NY open approaches and then much more controlled and slow shallow downward move during NY session). Watch out for Sunday night Asian session. And, it will be choppy and dangerous in all three (Europe, Japan, NY) through Dec and into Feb.
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Good point and it was discussed on this thread late last week when Romik and a few others commented that there was no US reaction, hence it wasn't bearish...but this market can shrug off external factors during "risk on" and then Yellen can go "hawkish" up at the highs and the market suddenly cares again...
Seems that if we find our way back down to 2000 level (Nov 15-16 lows), then perhaps another no hike scenario...
