Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$
- Thread starter makloda
- Start date
I am not trading mean reversion; as stated it is mostly a hedge and based on my interpretation of the what is likely to drive the markets going forward.
I get this queasy feeling that the Fed will hike .25 in Dec (maybe a bit of a sell-off and buy the dip) and then we go to Jan and Feb and March...each of these months they play out a "fear" that the Fed might hike again but it doesn't happen and the market rallies each time on more inaction. Maybe another hike of .25 around March or April and then the same thing each month through the summer?
I think it all boils down to a form of behavior modification where they throw us some treats and we press the buy lever and then every now and again they give us a shock...
this dynamic makes T/A kind of meaningless. Mean Reversion doesn't seem to hold and its not really a trend...more of a dictated march in unison higher followed by some red candles that only dare some to short...then more dictated marching in unison higher (a trend would suggest reasons and justifications for the strong moves and clear direction but I can't really find any other than Father Fed)
I think it all boils down to a form of behavior modification where they throw us some treats and we press the buy lever and then every now and again they give us a shock...
this dynamic makes T/A kind of meaningless. Mean Reversion doesn't seem to hold and its not really a trend...more of a dictated march in unison higher followed by some red candles that only dare some to short...then more dictated marching in unison higher (a trend would suggest reasons and justifications for the strong moves and clear direction but I can't really find any other than Father Fed)
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Or you could become a script writer in Hollywood concentrating on economics.
I use to laugh about this over and over again back in the day when I was monitoring amateur comments regarding price action.
Let me see, so everytime a higher low is made in an uptrend whenever we move to try make a higher high, we call it a potential double top?
Feel free to do as you wish, but we got "magnets" that take us much higher.
Piece of advice, it's much easier to call double bottoms in uptrends, than double tops in uptrends, and vice versa; you are barking up the wrong tree.
Yeah but...
Trend is your friend... Howzit go again?... 'Til it ends?
I'm not calling a top, but it's not your same 'ole wall of worry, more like a cresting wave perhaps?
Fed action to tighten may be weak, sissy-livered, panty-wearing pussy-footing, but the fact remains that it is tightening; behaviorally, the opposite of loosening; the pump is about to get switched into reverse (and I don't plan on standing in the way of that).
Thing is ye-ole buck, the good'ole greenback, aka American Peso... It's kinda expensive hommie. Can't recall where but I recently read a piece about just how massive its effect on S&P earnings is - Made sense to me. So if that is indeed the case (meanwhile Draghi has showed us yet again this week that he STILL wants to monkey-hammer the Euro lower yet), we are talking about possibly shrinking net revenues, from an already kinda high valuation level... What takes us higher, "multiple expansion"?
Yeah trend is your friend, but pissing into the wind ain't all that fun, charts or no charts.
I always enjoy reading your insights, and I'm therefore curious to ask why you are sure the market will be making new highs in 2016 as I've seen you write a few times. Is it strictly because of TA/PA on the daily/weekly charts? And if yes, is this based on the nature of the rejections and how each keeps getting bought up? Lastly, would you just as easily change your mind if/when price hits the previous highs but there is a strong rejection or lots of sideways action without any follow through?
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Most likely it will do that to trap even more shorts which will of course eventually help fuel the upside.
Which insights? Does autodidact have a twitter feed?
Ya what insights lol