can't compare japan to US since they are very dependent on a weak dollar for economic growth, but the only recession they had since zirp was 07-09 and they hiked rates from 0-1% leading up to it
Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$
- Thread starter makloda
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can't compare japan to US since they are very dependent on a weak dollar for economic growth, but the only recession they had since zirp was 07-09 and they hiked rates from 0-1% leading up to it
seems that is the way toppy markets behave...riding high and everything hunky dory, wildly bullish... then clues and flash numbers showing that the bullish theory is showing cracks which causes some panic and a decent sell-off....bottom of the sell-off comes some savior (this time our Fed) and market bounces back up to previous levels and maybe somewhat higher....then the first clues of cracks in the bullish theory shows more detail and truth, cracks begin to get wider, people slowly come to a realization that bullish run is at its top....then sell-off retraces, abet more slowly and much deeper and the beginning of a full-on bear market begins.
We have soooo many clues here of a long cycle top in all things bullish. My final indicator was whether these super start-ups would hold high valuations and come to the IPO market with lofty prices and first day/week runs. This has quickly played out to the negative. My guess is that window has already been closed. I thought they might try to slide Uber and Airbnb through as we came back up to the top in Nov but I don't see any of that super start-up mania happening at all now. In fact, I see alot of early high valuation investors getting screwed here
That was my last indicator of a continuing bull market.................
somebody help us with a check list of "signs of a top"
long growth stock sectors - earnings faltering
traditional consumer stock sectors - earnings faltering
industrial stock sectors - earnings faltering
equipment stock sectors - earnings faltering (CAT was the leading indicator)
financials in dire need of interest help that won't come
commodities supercycle finished
Global demand showing major problems
Global oversupply
IPOs in high growth sectors faltering badly
Recent wildly popular IPOs falling below IPO price
Very few and fewer heavy names holding up stock indices
Fast Track Emerging Growth countries faltering badly
World growth faltering
General Retail faltering
Hedge Funds cracking
Super Star fund traders seeing large losses
2 term presidential administration ending soon
Desperate price hikes in necessary services such as insurance, healthcare, pharmaceutical, retail/fast casual "fad must haves"
The very few retail/fast casual fad stocks cracking (Starbux, chipotle etc)
Very few stocks that double in less than two months.
Exactly. They keep markets in check just by talking about it.
The smart money unload when the suckers start believing that higher rates are good for stocks, and they buy when the same group of people start talking about ZIRP forever and recession. The reality is that this is a market thats going nowhere fast, the fed likes it that way so they want to keep it that way.
Yep sold my TVIX for a tiny profit this morning and as soon as I sell it it skyrockets into the close and after the markets close....left $500 on the table. The day I bought it it fell straight down...the day I sell it it goes straight up....what are the chances ...the odds...guess that's just bad market timing on my behalf...now to wait patiently and do it all over again....Dow off nearly 500 points in 2 days so it should be an interesting Monday opening...maybe one like August 24th??? Nah...they wouldn't let that happen twice in one year...
If this market isn't ripping the bears, it just reverses course like a steamroller...the way it sells off though is that "rolling chop" that makes you feel like it could just rip 100 pts or 20 s&p points on a whim...
a lot of people had turned pretty bullish after that Oct move straight back up to 2100...
I would say your sell bets are safe
I would say your sell bets are safe
a lot of people had turned pretty bullish after that Oct move straight back up to 2100...
I would say your sell bets are safe
Sort of relieved to have this fella's analyses coincide with mine, but that's a purely technical outlook (like mine), but what worries me is that an analyst that I have been following for many years now suggests that there is no bubble, hence my previous post that if I start seeing some TUDUMDUMDUMUPPP, then I will have to reverse.
And there you have, the fed won't raise now, they can use Paris as an excuse, just watch.