Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$
- Thread starter makloda
- Start date
Fun Friday eh guys? I personally think it'll become clearer and clearer that we're already entering into a recession - regardless of what all the "great job!" and other puff numbers show. Gotta wonder what the Fed will pull out of the hat this time. If they raise in Dec, which of course they won't, something will probably snap. If they wait and wait for economic improvement, they'll probably be waiting quite a long time.
You can't just print your way out of '08 - eventually the piper gets payed.
You can't just print your way out of '08 - eventually the piper gets payed.
seems that is the way toppy markets behave...riding high and everything hunky dory, wildly bullish... then clues and flash numbers showing that the bullish theory is showing cracks which causes some panic and a decent sell-off....bottom of the sell-off comes some savior (this time our Fed) and market bounces back up to previous levels and maybe somewhat higher....then the first clues of cracks in the bullish theory shows more detail and truth, cracks begin to get wider, people slowly come to a realization that bullish run is at its top....then sell-off retraces, abet more slowly and much deeper and the beginning of a full-on bear market begins.
We have soooo many clues here of a long cycle top in all things bullish. My final indicator was whether these super start-ups would hold high valuations and come to the IPO market with lofty prices and first day/week runs. This has quickly played out to the negative. My guess is that window has already been closed. I thought they might try to slide Uber and Airbnb through as we came back up to the top in Nov but I don't see any of that super start-up mania happening at all now. In fact, I see alot of early high valuation investors getting screwed here
That was my last indicator of a continuing bull market.................
somebody help us with a check list of "signs of a top"
long growth stock sectors - earnings faltering
traditional consumer stock sectors - earnings faltering
industrial stock sectors - earnings faltering
equipment stock sectors - earnings faltering (CAT was the leading indicator)
financials in dire need of interest help that won't come
commodities supercycle finished
Global demand showing major problems
Global oversupply
IPOs in high growth sectors faltering badly
Recent wildly popular IPOs falling below IPO price
Very few and fewer heavy names holding up stock indices
Fast Track Emerging Growth countries faltering badly
World growth faltering
General Retail faltering
Hedge Funds cracking
Super Star fund traders seeing large losses
2 term presidential administration ending soon
Desperate price hikes in necessary services such as insurance, healthcare, pharmaceutical, retail/fast casual "fad must haves"
The very few retail/fast casual fad stocks cracking (Starbux, chipotle etc)
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seems that is the way toppy markets behave...riding high and everything hunky dory, wildly bullish... then clues and flash numbers showing that the bullish theory is showing cracks which causes some panic and a decent sell-off....bottom of the sell-off comes some savior (this time our Fed) and market bounces back up to previous levels and maybe somewhat higher....then the first clues of cracks in the bullish theory shows more detail and truth, cracks begin to get wider, people slowly come to a realization that bullish run is at its top....then sell-off retraces, abet more slowly and much deeper and the beginning of a full-on bear market begins.
We have soooo many clues here of a long cycle top in all things bullish. My final indicator was whether these super start-ups would hold high valuations and come to the IPO market with lofty prices and first day/week runs. This has quickly played out to the negative. My guess is that window has already been closed. I thought they might try to slide Uber and Airbnb through as we came back up to the top in Nov but I don't see any of that super start-up mania happening at all now. In fact, I see alot of early high valuation investors getting screwed here
That was my last indicator of a continuing bull market.................
Put up a chart of the Dow 30 stocks (or some of the bigger names) over the weekend, or if you're bored, and look at what types of moves were required to get this market back up near the highs...It's truly remarkable what took place.
name one recession in the last 75 years that happened during ZIRP or a similar rates environment
this is a period of stagnation; recessions happen when credit becomes harder to obtain
Then why did you choose "recession2016" as your alias?
I'm not well versed in Japan's history, but are you telling me that Japan hasn't had one recession since it went to the zero bound?
hoping the fed raises before year's end
BULL SHIT you just got called out