Yeah, squeezes just become a "squeeze" in the other direction...you don't get the "pullbacks" to go long or the "rallies" to get short...it's just these feedback loops of mechanical squeezes that become one way trades that suddenly reverse course...of course the sentiment shifts must be epic..(I did notice that AAII went full bore bullish the last week of Oct)...plus the whole "seasonal" thingy that gets everyone loaded up expecting Nov-Dec to always be positive (but note Oct kinda inverted and we got the "crash" during a traditional August holiday market)...it really does seem like a front running algo that just slices and dices thru this CB driven illiquid market.
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Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$
- Thread starter makloda
- Start date
Yeah, squeezes just become a "squeeze" in the other direction...you don't get the "pullbacks" to go long or the "rallies" to get short...it's just these feedback loops of mechanical squeezes that become one way trades that suddenly reverse course...of course the sentiment shifts must be epic..(I did notice that AAII went full bore bullish the last week of Oct)...plus the whole "seasonal" thingy that gets everyone loaded up expecting Nov-Dec to always be positive (but note Oct kinda inverted and we got the "crash" during a traditional August holiday market)...it really does seem like a front running algo that just slices and dices thru this CB driven illiquid market.
I'm actually going to say in due time there will be an opportunity to fight the fed and win...once the fed loses every ounce of credibility which is going to happen you will be able to fight them and win...that time is coming...
As others have noted, the Fed absolutely does not want to actually raise rates...they want to have the appearance of acting without actually having to act...hence that comical graph that shows the Fed talks about raising with the SPX over 2100 (which naturally sends the algo's into sell mode), and gets the Fed off the hook (as a few weeks of down markets gives them cover to not raise again)...so this "fighting the Fed" thing is sort of quixotic...the Fed might be "fighting itself" and simply cancelling its bids to let this market soften up a bit (sort of like what they pulled back in mid-August).
Here Cramer is dumbfounded Bythe fact lower oil prices have NOT translated into higher retail sales.....anyone who thinks lower oil prices means higher retail sales has not a clue what's going on in this economic cycle...think about how much the average consumer is actually saving at the pump? ?? Maybe $5-$8 ....let's say $10.....now what? That extra $10 I just saved is now going to be spent on some holiday decoration ....all while I just saw an increase in my cable service along with my medical and maintenance fees I pay to have a roof over my head......come on.....that $10 im saving doesn't mean higher retail sales you fools..with the cost of living jumping that $10 is quickly be used in other areas of goods and services that are going up quicker than one could ever imagine
Cramer article
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/12/cram...adline|headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=103164674
Cramer article
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/12/cram...adline|headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=103164674
As others have noted, the Fed absolutely does not want to actually raise rates...they want to have the appearance of acting without actually having to act...hence that comical graph that shows the Fed talks about raising with the SPX over 2100 (which naturally sends the algo's into sell mode), and gets the Fed off the hook (as a few weeks of down markets gives them cover to not raise again)...so this "fighting the Fed" thing is sort of quixotic...the Fed might be "fighting itself" and simply cancelling its bids to let this market soften up a bit (sort of like what they pulled back in mid-August).
Damn spot on the damn money ...exactly right.....you are a 100% right.....as soon as the market starts its sell off the fed quickly bows down....its nothing but an illusion..its been all talk and zero action.....they better raise at the next meeting....the markets show a 68% chance of a fed hike....that should be more like 99.9%....
Here Cramer is dumbfounded Bythe fact lower oil prices have NOT translated into higher retail sales.....anyone who thinks lower oil prices means higher retail sales has not a clue what's going on in this economic cycle...think about how much the average consumer is actually saving at the pump? ?? Maybe $5-$8 ....let's say $10.....now what? That extra $10 I just saved is now going to be spent on some holiday decoration ....all while I just saw an increase in my cable service along with my medical and maintenance fees I pay to have a roof over my head......come on.....that $10 im saving doesn't mean higher retail sales you fools..with the cost of living jumping that $10 is quickly be used in other areas of goods and services that are going up quicker than one could ever imagine
Cramer article
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/12/cramer-why-this-decline-in-oil-is-so-frightening.html?__source=yahoo|finance|headline|headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=103164674
I stopped paying attention to that guy when he was writing his asinine commentary on Thestreet.com...I figured 2008 would be his final comeuppance, but even that just washed off his back...He's a strange bird. In his sober moments, you can see how sharp he is, but most of the time he is just a sort of apologist for all the fallacies of broken market logic. IOW, he feigns disgust or disappointment when some number is bullish and the market falls or vice-versa...sort of like his tag team with Susie Orman a few months ago with the market falling after Yellen went "hawkish" for a day...he's the main act in the circus called CNBS.
Went long more TVIX at $7.70.....just getting ready just in case!!!
You never know when that drop is coming so just added more protection in case you wake up one morning to see the futures off 5%, but we all know thats never going to happen because the fed always saves the market but you never know with this market....anything is possible!
WHAT a day!!!
Finally sold TVIX off at $7.81 just moments ago, was down over $1000 but held on the entire way through....sold for a tiny tiny profit!!!!
Knowing my luck we have a repeat of August 24th on November 16th and TVIX jumps $2-$3 bucks in the first hour of the opening bell and I miss out on over a $1000 worth of profits in only a few mins....
Oh well, will just have to wait and see...will buy it back this time well below $6.00 of course thats if volatility starts to dry up which is always the case after these very volatile moments!!
Still own shares of TVIX but cut my most of my holdings...wont sell the rest of TVIX until it gets to $20+++
the market is currently retracing "Draghi Day"...that ramp-a-thon when sentiment was wildly bullish...it seems 2020 cash is on everyone's radar as support...I didn't think that it would get here this fast.