Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$
- Thread starter makloda
- Start date
seems like 2040 is the bottom of the current channel going back to March 2105. So, is this just a move to the bottom of the channel and back up or is it a bigger sell-off down toward 2000?
It dropped down to the bottom of the channel a little too quickly to allow for the negatives from today to process out into a quick bounce back up the channel. Today's earnings not really a big issue but traders starting to see that the more dovish and QE laden Japan and Europe get, the higher the USD will be pushed causing US multinationals to take an earnings hit and keeping oil settlement prices low.
Also that Oil and Oil related companies are not going to see any relief any time soon. Financials may not even get the rate hike they so desperately need. That is a big chunk of problem companies (mainstream brick and mortar retail (non-discount), energy, multinationals, financials, miners, miner related, metals, not to mention any company that does much of their business in China).
Might need more than a dovish Fed, might need negative interest rates in US?
Also some of the Aug sell-off names are coming back into play: CAT looking bad today, Glencore diving, BHP and Vale already taking a nasty hit on the dams bursting news, More biotech related negatives regarding price gouging, financials as a group starting to roll over, BABA back in a very negative spotlight (along with suspect economic data in general coming out of China)
Kind of hard to really say because they will start talking about "No Rate Hike in Dec" very quickly...but the global coordination in the Central Banks may not be playing out exactly as they planned. Now... once negative rates in US starts to become a subject, then its back to Buy Buy Buy on all dips BTFD
Also that Oil and Oil related companies are not going to see any relief any time soon. Financials may not even get the rate hike they so desperately need. That is a big chunk of problem companies (mainstream brick and mortar retail (non-discount), energy, multinationals, financials, miners, miner related, metals, not to mention any company that does much of their business in China).
Might need more than a dovish Fed, might need negative interest rates in US?
Also some of the Aug sell-off names are coming back into play: CAT looking bad today, Glencore diving, BHP and Vale already taking a nasty hit on the dams bursting news, More biotech related negatives regarding price gouging, financials as a group starting to roll over, BABA back in a very negative spotlight (along with suspect economic data in general coming out of China)
Kind of hard to really say because they will start talking about "No Rate Hike in Dec" very quickly...but the global coordination in the Central Banks may not be playing out exactly as they planned. Now... once negative rates in US starts to become a subject, then its back to Buy Buy Buy on all dips BTFD
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Bonds barely got any bids today even though stocks got dumped hard, so it seems to me that the asset managers who dumped bonds for stocks have not capitulated, they are very comfortable with the stocks they bought at recent highs.
It's an interesting observation...Out of the corner of my eye I have the Dow 30 stocks and the FANGS along with some other "glam" stocks...you would never know that the NDX has come off of its recent parabolic highs or that the SPX is now 70 pts removed from its highs last week...there is just the remarkable complacency throughout this market...but it's the same thing most of us were noticing back in July and August...that the headline indicies are driven by a handful of stocks that are heavier weighted and therefore move those indicies closer to or beyond all-time high's...meanwhile the NYA or Russell or Mid-cap indicies struggle to retrace 50% of 2015's downswing or can't even recapture the 200day MA before the pullback in the headline indicies throws them back into the downtrend.
Sounds like we have the same chart, lol...but then I see it breaking below that channel in SPY/SPX...the bearish price action is always much more nuanced than the clean breakaway moves when this thing is either squeezing or the panicked long only crowd is jumping in at every price level...it's like stealth distribution and the pace slows way down...reminds me alot of what the market was doing that third week of September when it would just mechanically meander down lower thru the channel with a few intermittent spikes to panic shorts and then resume selling...the pace is what makes it very difficult to stay short since it will traverse the range and then the real selling seems to happen overnight or after the cash close.
OK right, I forgot I was looking at ES. I should actually post channels and numbers in SPX because that is spot...sometimes I am looking too much at futures and one finds much better longer term feel looking at spot...
Ok let me go back to charts and draw some SPX trends and see how that fetters out with my ES notions
edit..just looked. Wow not the same channel at all. Thanks for bringing that point to my attention kommish
lol is right
2040 still a point to watch but not nearly as clear of a channel bottom
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I'm actually going to say in due time there will be an opportunity to fight the fed and win...once the fed loses every ounce of credibility which is going to happen you will be able to fight them and win...that time is coming...
Here Cramer says its not inflation you have to worry about but deflation (but not in wages)
Yep no inflation...nope no inflation at alllllll...right. It's everywhere you look ...the other day I went out with a friend...I ordered a large tea...some kind of medium coolata coffee and a donut...$7.00 $7.000000 bucks...and this wasn't a fancy place ..it was a Fu$king dunkin donuts... $7.00 ...no inflation...stop the lies...inflation is every where...the fed is going to use the excuse that inflation is under their key target and on December 17th they will use that as an excuse as to why they won't raise rates....
Cramer article
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/12/cramer-theres-poison-bubbling-under-the-surface.html
Yep no inflation...nope no inflation at alllllll...right. It's everywhere you look ...the other day I went out with a friend...I ordered a large tea...some kind of medium coolata coffee and a donut...$7.00 $7.000000 bucks...and this wasn't a fancy place ..it was a Fu$king dunkin donuts... $7.00 ...no inflation...stop the lies...inflation is every where...the fed is going to use the excuse that inflation is under their key target and on December 17th they will use that as an excuse as to why they won't raise rates....
Cramer article
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/12/cramer-theres-poison-bubbling-under-the-surface.html
2040 could be broken tomorrow along with Nasdaq 5000....another 5% pull back or what??? People need to xmas gifts...they won't if we have one of those 1000 point day drops