Some of these guys predicted the correction that occurred was the start of a 40-50% crash. That was never going to happen, why on earth would people sell stocks like AAPL when they still generate a lot of profits ( with some growth still ) ? P/E levels are nowhere near bubble levels, and both 1998 and 2011 are instructive on what can occur in these types of markets. Most of these "crash hunters" are years early on their forecasts even if they luck into picking one, and 2008 is far too recent for investors to create another crash. Those who sold near the bottom regret their choices now, and some never came back. I think many who made money since 2009 have rebalanced their portfolios, less equity exposure given the increased risk of higher P/Es.
The first couple of rate hikes ( up to 0.50% ) will have no lasting impact on US indexes. If indexes move it will be valuation based entirely, with corporate earnings setting the tone for future growth or decline. If anything, the bull stalled on the idea that the hikes were coming, then corrected when the fed didn't raise which worried weak hands that the US economy was struggling ( it isn't ). The whole China story is a joke, the idea that a growing economy is a negative because it's growing at a more normalized pace is deeply flawed, and AAPLs earnings clearly illustrated they have an immense consumer market. I have no idea how many listed companies can profit from these world wide changes, but corporate earnings will tell the tale, not all the bs hype ( mostly negative this year ) in the media that feeds into people's fears.
As per usual, the tape will tell the tale, not opinions. If I'm wrong, no worries, I have an extremely low risk position right now.
