Deep sell-offs lead to WTF rallies (even if short lived)...Typically, the high VIX market just means intermittent sell-offs followed by massive short squeezes...then, when the Fed gives the "all clear" the market moves in one direction with less and less volatility...Stock Indicies are just geared for the bulls...Commodities and other products, completely different story.
Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$
- Thread starter makloda
- Start date
Deep sell-offs lead to WTF rallies (even if short lived)...Typically, the high VIX market just means intermittent sell-offs followed by massive short squeezes...then, when the Fed gives the "all clear" the market moves in one direction with less and less volatility...Stock Indicies are just geared for the bulls...Commodities and other products, completely different story.
market sentiment....chatter and conversations of extreme bullishness, Fed never raises atmosphere. Especially lots of talk regarding millennials missing out big time in this new "forever" bull market. I would say, at this point, that once Uber and Airbnb IPO (which will draw in large numbers of millennials)...maybe going into Feb, March, April....that will be when "the market feels that enough new suckers are long into the market (dumb money)". Look for biotechs to regain past heights and extreme bullishness in silicon valley tech caused by Uber and Airbnb IPO listings Look for the Square IPO and how well it might do as a marker for Airbnb and Uber...this will be the short of a life time. Don't know how long it might take? Probably happen before the Summer. Christmas will help to extend the bubble.
It may start to finally end when one of the US presidential candidates starts to question the integrity of the Fed and the damage it has caused the US..maybe asking for a new audit (Rand Paul?)..who knows but this is the feel I have right now
everyone waiting for the millennials to get sucked into this hyped up pile of sh#t, before they start shorting in large volume
It may start to finally end when one of the US presidential candidates starts to question the integrity of the Fed and the damage it has caused the US..maybe asking for a new audit (Rand Paul?)..who knows but this is the feel I have right now
everyone waiting for the millennials to get sucked into this hyped up pile of sh#t, before they start shorting in large volume
Last edited:
Just look at the magic futures go, so easy making risk free money, it's so easy a cave man can do it$$$$$$$$$ choo chop free money train rolling down the track.
It feels slow, alot of churn, alot of drift, very brief and minor pullbacks that drift higher...I've taken to putting the orders in and not watching it...
It's an intriguing theory...the late 90's was clearly driven by the boomer demographic...you could see, hear and sense the public all over those markets...that was so completely different from what we have now...also, I still lament the days that we did away with some form of open outcry (I liked the side by side Globex and open outcry)...much, much more difficult, if not impossible for alot of the gimickry that we see on a daily basis nowadays...
Personally, I just don't believe the Millenials are a hook for this market...they are the most indebted generation and don't even have the numbers to really be a play for this sort of thing...too young, tons of student debt, paying for the hangover of the debt fueled orgies of the past 30+ years (exorbitant rent and a very high priced equity market)...
It seems like regardless of what the retail public might or might not do, the CB's can just play "hot potato" for an exorbitant amount of time...
Main problem with this market is lack of participation from "stags", bag holders and long term buy and holds. This means that if the market dives, the only losers are big money, corps and funds. Market doubtful to ever drop in a significant way without bagholders....just controlled corrections when consensus belief correction is needed as we just saw and again 2011 and so on. This is all allowed because one can keep borrowing for free to invest in equity and cause melt ups.
This may change as more and more well known apps start to appear as IPOs. Until now, most (90%) companies from the dot com bubble were failures either short term or longer term. GOOG not even a dot com era company and apple not a dot com at all. Microsoft and Cisco from early 1990s. Amazon, Yahoo and ebay are the very few still alive and maybe a few travel dot coms.
For fairly large market participation by average investors there needs to be a series of new app style silicon valley IPOs from companies younger people have heard of that are successful...bringing us away from the older PC or dot com dynamic. This is why biotech has been chased for 8 years higher now....nothing else out there. Most average younger investors probably don't relate enough to invest in biotechs. Without a next generation of investors (global investors including Asia) the game really is over...just pros trading against each other (might as well flip houses or buy a Qdoba franchise and you can still buy and hold SPX while you do it)