Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$
- Thread starter makloda
- Start date
Another trader Daal expecting a flush
http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index...-trading-journal.215992/page-531#post-4179563
http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index...-trading-journal.215992/page-531#post-4179563
928 days since the SP500 had a one day decline of >2%... Why argue against facts and statistics!!!!! Dipsters know: THERE IS NO RISK!!!!!!!!!
http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/25254
PUKAGE
The exact time they raise isn't important ( see point 2 below ); there are two aspects to why I posted.
One, the situation in Canada is instructive of what may happen in the US. In 2010, Canada realized that it's economy wasn't in trouble and raised twice. That despite already running slightly higher rates then the US. Those rates lasted 4 years, with smaller decreases this year to help with the severe Oil impact on Alberta. With the US economy far more stable now then in 2009, I could easily see a similar interest rate plan in the US. No guarantees on timing, but Canada didn't go in the toilet because interest rates were higher. Even a plummeting Oil price hasn't really killed the economy ( beyond Alberta ) or the Federal government budget ( a small surplus ).
Two, there are at least 2 posters on this thread claiming that US interest rates will remain at zero for 10-20 years, and at least 3 posters claiming the US will have negative interest rates in the near future. This to me is a ridiculous premise in 2015. I am presenting a counter opinion to these frequently discussed ideas.
The ole "the economy is much better now" argument. Let's see where we are in 2 years.
Look Nine, we are all speculators, at the end of the day it doesn't matter what we think may happen to US interest rates, what matters is how we extract profit from our analysis whatever they may be. I mostly trade the chart, I do participate in discussions, but mostly to kill the time. I am no expert and even if I was - how many of them get it right?
Well yeah, if you only raise rates to 1% generally your economy will not go into the toilet… the Bank of Canada is pegged to the dollar through its reserves anyway, so rates will never vary much from America, right now your at 75 basis points to the Fed's 50.
It's not so much that raising rates will cause an economic crash, its that you can't raise rates significantly because there is simply no inflation, your trapped.
Globalization and free trade have created a deflationary trap. I think I'm turning Japanese.
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Think about it. We're already years into 0% interest rates, the US has zero growth, I wouldn't believe those pathetic GDP figures...without QE 1 2 & 3 GDP figures would be negative.... With the trillions in debt the US of A is in rates aren't going anywhere... And like I said wait till the next crisis that's coming and watch the fed studder on Capitol hill with more worthless dribble...the only way is Negative interest rates....its coming. QE 4 and negative rates.....
it's obvious that there will be a flush
the real question is if this is going to be like 2011 or more significant
the real question is if this is going to be like 2011 or more significant
Maybe I am going paranoid, a little 
, now that I keep hearing that BOE is considering negative interest rates AND possibility of abolishing cash (other CBs also mentioned that) I look at Gold & Silver charts and it's starting to make sense why they may be possibly basing. If inflation is under control, then metals become a perfect hedge in a society that's been stripped of physical money, as that reporter has quite rightly noted - no cash, no bank runs. Can't withdraw virtual money. But we would still need some form of physical money and precious metals (especially silver as it's affordable) will then replace paper money. That's what I am thinking.
, now that I keep hearing that BOE is considering negative interest rates AND possibility of abolishing cash (other CBs also mentioned that) I look at Gold & Silver charts and it's starting to make sense why they may be possibly basing. If inflation is under control, then metals become a perfect hedge in a society that's been stripped of physical money, as that reporter has quite rightly noted - no cash, no bank runs. Can't withdraw virtual money. But we would still need some form of physical money and precious metals (especially silver as it's affordable) will then replace paper money. That's what I am thinking.