Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

It's interesting that I'm reading lots of opinions on here that new highs are in the cards (which would be truly the greatest beartrap in decades), but I don't see how a market goes sideways for 6-8 months while every other leading indicator breaks down and, voila, a sharp 3 day break suddenly becomes the thing that turns this all bullish...then again we all saw what happened last October...trendlines were broken, the markets were turning down, QE/ZIRP winding down and bam it rallies right off those lows and VIX collapsed for months...

We really are trading against central banks and their cronies...and truth be told it's a razor's edge between getting it right and getting steamrolled.
 
S2007S said:
Yea sweet drop in the vix back below 20 would mean an easy print of 2015+ on the s$p tomorrow ....im sure they get it back to 2000.....2040 next week? Nearly 1000 point gain in the Dow last 2 days any further upside and im taking all my long positions off...

5 down day correction and its over? I think not.
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The way these algo's operate in this completely illiquid market, I'm seriously thinking that there will come a point where the swings will dwarf 2008. We've also seen that there are upside "crashes"...the angle of ascent is no different than the angle of descent (something we didn't see as frequently prior to hft)...Sure there were squeezes, but these have a totally different feel...almost like the wires could cross and go up another 5% on air...
 
A one month downturn, after several good months, does not mean the end of the business cycle. Remember how quiet this summer was despite the economic numbers.

Released: Thursday, August 20, 2015


The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in July to 123.3 (2010 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in June, and a 0.6 percent increase in May.

“The U.S. LEI fell slightly in July, after four months of strong gains. Despite a sharp drop in housing permits, the U.S. LEI is still pointing to moderate economic growth through the remainder of the year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Current conditions, measured by the coincident economic index, have been rising moderately but steadily, driven by rising employment and income, and even industrial production has improved in recent months.”
 
But this market doesn't really trade off of traditional econ data...It's been all about that expanding Fed balance sheet for the past six years...obviously the component stocks are data dependent, but the buybacks and ZIRP have distorted that as well...

Just looking at these charts, I see a broken market (not implying direction in stating that).
 
der_kommissar said:
It's interesting that I'm reading lots of opinions on here that new highs are in the cards (which would be truly the greatest beartrap in decades), but I don't see how a market goes sideways for 6-8 months while every other leading indicator breaks down and, voila, a sharp 3 day break suddenly becomes the thing that turns this all bullish...then again we all saw what happened last October...trendlines were broken, the markets were turning down, QE/ZIRP winding down and bam it rallies right off those lows and VIX collapsed for months...

We really are trading against central banks and their cronies...and truth be told it's a razor's edge between getting it right and getting steamrolled.
More...

I don't believe that the retail public have actually entered this market yet, they have been on the sidelines for the last 7 years imo, hence my call for not only the record highs to be broken this year , but 3000 on the sp500 by end of next year.
 
Visaria said:
I don't believe that the retail public have actually entered this market yet, they have been on the sidelines for the last 7 years imo, hence my call for not only the record highs to be broken this year , but 3000 on the sp500 by end of next year.
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In Holland retail has returned en masse to the stock market, so if history repeats the market is toast.
 
A couple of charts of former selloffs, not much to go by, but at least it shows that you can expect that the market will need more than a few days to work this off.

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