The only nasty intervention coming is QE4 after this market starts to really fall apart, as I said many times forget about the rate hikes, if the market cannot handle a small little tiny tiny tiny tiny .25% rate increase that tells you just how weak and worthless this economy is, they will not admit how weak the world economies are but because they haven't raised the rates like they said they would it shows you that the economy is extremely weak and can't even handle a small rate increase of just .25%, the fed will have no where to turn to once the next recession comes, they were given numerous opportunities to bring rates to 3-4% over the last few years and have not done so, so my prediction is negative interest rates and more QE 4. Its going to be quite a spectacular show when this all happens at once, I can't wait for their next emergency meeting, remember the fed only has emergency meetings when markets are collapsing, so in due time we should get one or two emergency meetings....
Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$
- Thread starter makloda
- Start date
The only nasty intervention coming is QE4 after this market starts to really fall apart, as I said many times forget about the rate hikes, if the market cannot handle a small little tiny tiny tiny tiny .25% rate increase that tells you just how weak and worthless this economy is, they will not admit how weak the world economies are but because they haven't raised the rates like they said they would it shows you that the economy is extremely weak and can't even handle a small rate increase of just .25%, the fed will have no where to turn to once the next recession comes, they were given numerous opportunities to bring rates to 3-4% over the last few years and have not done so, so my prediction is negative interest rates and more QE 4. Its going to be quite a spectacular show when this all happens at once, I can't wait for their next emergency meeting, remember the fed only has emergency meetings when markets are collapsing, so in due time we should get one or two emergency meetings....
Yeah, partly agree...but it speaks volumes towards how many of the world's central banks have been chasing the Fed...look at the dollar strength over the past year and how many economies have imploded just based on that...then think about how much worse it would be if the Fed were to raise 2-3 times in the next 12 months (basically what that leaked forecast from a few Friday's ago implied)...
No, the Fed is probably going down the QE4 rabbit hole partly to weaken the dollar again or to lessen the strain on the many sectors of the economy that are getting killed due to its strength...the bigger problem is that they know that they've destroyed whatever credibility they had left (if and when that QE4 announcement arrives)...
Definitely an incredibly annoying market to trade IMO. It's hard to get committed to any short position because of the looming threat of BTFD hordes and Fed constantly changing up the gameplan. If this were 2000 you'd just go short and be done with it.
I don't have any present positions in ES directly right now - but I did go short an Oct/Sep VX spread (long sep) a couple days ago and am at that familiar crossroads of "cover or hold" due to previously said market schizophrenia.
I don't have any present positions in ES directly right now - but I did go short an Oct/Sep VX spread (long sep) a couple days ago and am at that familiar crossroads of "cover or hold" due to previously said market schizophrenia.
Exactly right about 2000. The curveball back then were the series of surprise rate cuts (started in earnest in Oct, 1998)...But the day to day sell-offs were not as defended as they have become over the years...Then again the entire structure of the markets are different...I'd still go back to the period of time where side-by-side trading was still employed...The opaqueness of markets, the spoofing, the hft's, etc...completely changed the structure of it all.
Not only have they been chasing but also copying with QE and plenty of stimulus to help fight against any possible downturn in their economies leading to recessions, little do they know is that QE never worked, thats what everyone is failing to understand, with central banks following what they think the fed got right by doing all these rounds of stimulus and bringing rates to historical lows will be proven very wrong in the not so distant future
ITs been very difficult, trust me, I was trading in 2000 and through the last crisis, this is nothing compared to markets I have ever seen, everyone thinks this is a normal trading market, even those holding long think this is a normal market, I know people who have lots of money tied up in this market and yes I have said over the last year or two to lighten up positions, but when you have a market going up year over year, quarter over quarter, week over week, day over day, minute over minute with every dip being bought its hard for someone to run and take profits, Im sure most people who bought the market 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 years ago that are sitting on 50%+ gains are telling themselves the dow is only off a 1000 points from its highs and should have no problem getting back there, its that mentality that when the dow is off another 1000 points they are like okay 17,000 is going to come back then before you know it the markets are off 32% and at that point your huge gains are now just tiny gains...
In 2000 it was even tough to go short with the idea that everyone had this thought the dow was going to 40,000....50,000...100,000....nasdaq 10,000 was being talked about, here we are 15 long years later and the nasdaq is sitting at 5,000, do you know what kind of leadership you need in stocks to get the nasdaq to 10,000....leadership is getting lost in this market, only a few stocks are leading this market higher while the rest are getting weaker and weaker.....you can't continue to make new highs with the lack of leadership that has been occurring, you need a lot more than a few dozen stocks making highs to keep the s$P running higher and higher....
50 points away from DOW 17,000
DOW off 300 points!!!!!
DOW off 300 points!!!!!
- DJIA17047.54
-301.19-1.74%
- S&P 5002043.33
-36.28-1.74%
- NASDAQ4897.35
-121.70
- DJIA17047.54
FUTURES WILL RALLY OVERNIGHT ZERO RISK FREE $$$$ TOMORROW BY NOON CNBC WILL SAY WELL OFF THE LOWS !!!
i'm filling in for rickshaw man today
i'm filling in for rickshaw man today