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Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$
- Thread starter makloda
- Start date
S2007S, one question, I do share your bearishness, but why not wait for price to confirm your analysis? Think about the logic here, since you don't need to scale into a massive short position like some funds do, once the market tops it will show us that it has topped by price confirmation on weekly and/or monthly basis whatever your preference is. It's nice to be right to call a top or a bottom, but surely that is more of a hobby, rather than putting real money on the line against the herd.
by the time the market tops and you see it in the price confirmation it will be way too late, no one knows a bear market is here until well after the fact it shows, its nearly impossible to see it taking place, many would disagree but its not easy to see the start of a correction, no one saw it coming back in 2008-2009, I remember trading at that time and not one soul said we were going to drop, no one predicted that drop, everyone was smiling and happy and making predictions of a higher market just like they are today, the drop in 2008-2009 happened out of no where, look back at October 2014, we dropped for about a week or 2, everyone was going crazy, questions about is this the top and where are we headed? I remember the market opening orders going crazy one morning, I mean it was insane, the bid and ask were going everywhere on so many ETFs I follow... it was unbelievable to see how much panic came into this market in only hours of what everyone thought was the top....that was just a sample of whats to come once this market tops...the higher it goes the heavier it drops...why anyone doesn't want a simple clean 10% correction is beyond me, that would actually support a higher move up but this market can't take a 10% let alone a 1% dip, its gotten to the point where any down moment is met with fear even if its a 32 point drop in the dow, and that is going to lead to serious consequences in due time....
Don't forget.... next week is federal reserve dove season. Buy with both hands, this fed will never raise rates.....I expect a big breakout to the upside. Im buying aggressively.
I heard there won't be much going on at that meeting, but I do know cnbc will come out with an article an hour saying that none of the fed presidents see a rate hike in 2015 which should boost markets 2-3% next week, and with apple earnings starting off next week that should give a clean rally all week, Im going with a complete surge in the markets next week, 5 straight days of upward moment with a close next friday at historical highs....
semis going down today, off 1% with the nasdaq up, watch that group carefully, they are usually the leaders to look for in market performance when it comes to tech.... SOXL down almost $10 a share, I was going to go long SOXS after selling it last week again under $11 but held off knowing that TXN was going to announce, well their earnings were really bad, they missed by a lot and since then the semis have been underperforming the entire market which could be a sign to watch out for any pullback.
Again, pls allow me to say, the collapse will surely happen one day but by that time Janet Yellen will surely be retired or even dead.yes indeed in up markets and bull markets and markets that only go up human intervention is never needed, its actually forgotten about, you can have all the up days in a row you want and the biggest yearly returns year over year over year, were up 200% in 6 years...everyone sits back comfortably in bull markets that don't go down, but in a declining market and bear markets, hahah human intervention is needed on a daily basis, every second they are needed to keep things propped up, if there was a 4% drop happening right this second yellen would be on cnbc saying we are ready at all costs to supply the markets with QE if needed, by the time markets are off 8% yellen would push QE 4 right through, no questions asked.....if that didn't work and we were going into a full blown 10% correction she would up the QE by tens of billions a month, if that didn't work and the markets fell by 20%+ she would do a $3 TRILLION dollar QE package and announce no rate hikes until the markets found a footing to stand on, she would then take rates that are already at 0% to negative.....who knows what the fed would do since they don't have a clue what they are doing now, once the next collapse comes they will be running in circles to find a way to keep it together...Im telling you that day is going to come because it always does, its going to be the best moment in market history to see the fed trying to quickly fix the next crisis, Im sure we will see yellen on cnbc every day for weeks and months trying to smooth the crisis out but she won't be able to....
by the time the market tops and you see it in the price confirmation it will be way too late, no one knows a bear market is here until well after the fact it shows, its nearly impossible to see it taking place, many would disagree but its not easy to see the start of a correction, no one saw it coming back in 2008-2009, I remember trading at that time and not one soul said we were going to drop, no one predicted that drop, everyone was smiling and happy and making predictions of a higher market just like they are today, the drop in 2008-2009 happened out of no where, look back at October 2014, we dropped for about a week or 2, everyone was going crazy, questions about is this the top and where are we headed? I remember the market opening orders going crazy one morning, I mean it was insane, the bid and ask were going everywhere on so many ETFs I follow... it was unbelievable to see how much panic came into this market in only hours of what everyone thought was the top....that was just a sample of whats to come once this market tops...the higher it goes the heavier it drops...why anyone doesn't want a simple clean 10% correction is beyond me, that would actually support a higher move up but this market can't take a 10% let alone a 1% dip, its gotten to the point where any down moment is met with fear even if its a 32 point drop in the dow, and that is going to lead to serious consequences in due time....
Well I disagree there. You said so yourself, 7 years without retracement or whatever. So how long do you think the crash will take? 1 year? If so, what is 1 week for confirmation out of 52 weeks?
by the time the market tops and you see it in the price confirmation it will be way too late, no one knows a bear market is here until well after the fact it shows, its nearly impossible to see it taking place, many would disagree but its not easy to see the start of a correction, no one saw it coming back in 2008-2009, I remember trading at that time and not one soul said we were going to drop, no one predicted that drop, everyone was smiling and happy and making predictions of a higher market just like they are today, the drop in 2008-2009 happened out of no where, look back at October 2014, we dropped for about a week or 2, everyone was going crazy, questions about is this the top and where are we headed? I remember the market opening orders going crazy one morning, I mean it was insane, the bid and ask were going everywhere on so many ETFs I follow... it was unbelievable to see how much panic came into this market in only hours of what everyone thought was the top....that was just a sample of whats to come once this market tops...the higher it goes the heavier it drops...why anyone doesn't want a simple clean 10% correction is beyond me, that would actually support a higher move up but this market can't take a 10% let alone a 1% dip, its gotten to the point where any down moment is met with fear even if its a 32 point drop in the dow, and that is going to lead to serious consequences in due time....
So much bs from you. In October 2009, you were extremely bearish on US equities. You said the S&P would definitely go below 1000 and possibly test 600. So apparently, you were entirely clueless about the bull market. Clueless for at least 5 years as evidenced by your posts on this site.
So while you rail against imaginary people who supposedly can't understand fluctuating markets, it is more important to identify that in terms of reading long term moves in markets you are terrible at this. Read that again. You are truly terrible at analyzing long term movements in markets. There is no doubt on this. So why on earth would anyone care one bit that you think at some indeterminant time in the future a giant collapse will occur ?
Seriously, dude, stfu. You said your piece a thousand times, don't say it again. That's moronic and childish behavior. And to those who think I should go easy on this guy, well, all bets are off when he repeats the same crappy ideas many, many times over many months when essentially markets are flat.
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Again, pls allow me to say, the collapse will surely happen one day but by that time Janet Yellen will surely be retired or even dead.
S2007S would never let reality impact on his delusions. For example, many months ago I told him that there would likely be no QE4 in the US in 2015. He has since claimed numerous times that QE4 is coming. So on January 1st, 2016, we will know for sure if QE4 occurred in 2015 in the US. He will be right or he will be wrong ( the latter is far more likely ).
A rationale man, once proven wrong, might rethink his assumptions. Not S2007S. He'll start posting about QE4 coming in 2016. This is how these guys operate.