I only listen to price, math major, not economics, when it's time to short I'm pretty sure a downtrend or range expansion to the downside will develop.
Shorting the top is all luck, its nearly impossible to time a bear market because by the time you see it its already there, you may observe the downtrend, but even at that point you will be in there to buy thinking its just a dip, then the dip becomes just more than a dip, but a drop....there have been hundreds of dips these last 6 years of this bull market, how many dips in the future are going to be bought like the last dips we have had, one day buying the dip won't work as it used to, that trend will stop ....also many don't know what a bear is, most have forgotten since its been straight up without even a meaningful 10% correction which I believe is going on 1300 days now.....the market falls a lot quicker than it rises, you could see years of gains wiped out in only a few weeks once the collapse comes, but of course no one even thinks about that because there is zero risk at this very second, add a little risk and you will see how quick people run....