SO in the last few months s$p earnings have dropped significantly yet markets are only 1% off their highs....there was an original forecast for a huge whopping 4.3% growth at the beginning of 2015, but today they are now expected to turn in negative growth of 5 percent, again the market has shrugged this off completely thanks again to the central banks and yellen with her friends at the fed....as you can see it says U.S companies are under-promising so they can over-deliver this earnings season, this is the new way of announcing earnings so that earnings look better each and every time a company announces....add that to the buy backs and you have a recipe for unlimited gains, this market has no rules, it has no risk, its backed by a dovish fed that will give it anything and everything it wants....this is a market that has never been seen before, you may think its a healthy strong market but in reality its not, I will keep repeating that until the day the market collapses, I don't care what earnings look like, I don't care about continuous historical highs or GDP figures, thats all smoke and mirrors, take away the trillions the central banks have pumped into the world markets and you would soon realize this market is worthless without them, it can't stand on its own...once the real market starts to slowly show its real ways you will wish there was no such thing as the fed or QE or free bailouts. This market will turn so quick you won't have a clue what to do...but for now let everyone enjoy all this free money, I hope some are putting it away for a rainy day....you are definitely going to need it.
Belski: Notion of 2015 earnings recession is 'bunk'
Tom DiChristopher
Thursday, 9 Apr 2015 | 10:27 AM ET
U.S. companies are under-promising so they can over-deliver this earnings season, Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said on Thursday.
Estimates for S&P 500 earnings growth have been revised down significantly since the beginning of the year. Companies in the index are now expected to turn in negative growth of 5 percent, compared with a forecast for 4.3 percent growth at the beginning of the year.
"This whole notion of an earnings recession is bunk, as my grandmother used to say," he told CNBC's
"Squawk Box."
Belski called the practice of issuing earnings forecasts that companies know they can beat a game. Gloomy full-year forecasts are reminiscent of the outlook in 2014, he said, noting that those premonitions did not come to pass. The S&P 500 rose 12.5 percent in 2014.
Earnings estimates have not fully priced in the benefit of lower energy costs, Belski said. Oil prices have fallen about 50 percent from their highs in June.
"No one's talking about lower input costs the second half of the year," he said. "If you have lower natural gas prices and lower oil prices, that's going to help the manufacturing sector."
Earnings growth estimates for consumer staples, one of the sectors expected to reap the benefits of lower prices at the pump, have been revised down from 14 percent to 6 percent.
Ashwani Kaul, CEO of Kaul Advisory Group, sees S&P 500 earnings falling 4.6 percent, making his one of the bleakest outlooks. The silver lining is that earnings should actually grow 5 percent excluding energy and materials, both commodity plays, he said.
He continued to say the negative growth period should only last one or two quarters.
"We expect earnings to pick up in the third and fourth quarter. I think once the whole commodities and currency stuff plays out, and things become more stable, there are some good opportunities in the later half of the year," he told "Squawk Box."
