That said, I got stopped out. So I am done for the day. It will now crash without me.
Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$
- Thread starter makloda
- Start date
That said, I got stopped out. So I am done for the day. It will now crash without me.
IBB was up on Biogen news and I was surprised to see a $7+ jump turn lower, Biotech is in a bubble, you won't here too many people mentioning that....Lots of money going into r&d with only possibilities of these drugs ever making it to market, its been an incredible run with the sector up OVER 15% ytd, look at any biotech stock just 5 years ago, no one cared for these stocks and now everyone is chasing them, pull up a 10 year chart on IBB and its just one way, UP....not even a slight pull back over the last 5 years, in the last 2 years its up 100%, I mean when do people say okay I think its time to take some profit, do most believe that IBB and biotech stocks in general are going to continue with 30-50% gains year over year....
I just bought SPXS under $18.50 and DGAZ under $6
Maybe this rally starts to reverse but I highly doubt it since days like today mean a slow going higher in the close, same thing over and over, I came close to my prediction this week when I said earlier this week that the markets would be closing at historical highs, came close, day isnt over yet, dow could run up another 200 points by the close and settle above 18,300.
Maybe this rally starts to reverse but I highly doubt it since days like today mean a slow going higher in the close, same thing over and over, I came close to my prediction this week when I said earlier this week that the markets would be closing at historical highs, came close, day isnt over yet, dow could run up another 200 points by the close and settle above 18,300.
I shorted IBB at the open and had a very good day. I am grateful. But shorts have to be sniper trades until further notice, and so I got stopped for the day. One of these days we will see a -4% day, maybe it is today. I am not talking my book. I am flat for the day and will enjoy my lunch.
Agree with the bubble.
First of all, they have the highest P/S ratio in the marketplace.
Second, many have little earnings.
Lastly, I think there will be a backlash when the media starts reporting that more is spent on marketing drugs than R&D. Obamacare will make everyone watch costs like a hawk. I for one am outraged. When a doctor prescribes Dulera vs Advair, the pharma companies know about it, buys my doctor lunch and asks him why not switch to the competition. What happened to patient privacy or making decisions for the patient without undue influence?
Today is not "everyday". It is quad witching. Which is why I think it could still crash. Good luck on your shorts.
Funny the fed has lowered their forecast for GDP growth for nearly 3 years out...yet stocks keep moving higher......something very scary about this market....aside from that lets get something straight, NO RATE HIKE in 2015, NO RATE HIKE in 2016 and NO RATE HIKE in 2017!!!! ZERO RATES FOR THE NEXT 3 YEARS!!!
One of the most striking aspects of the new set of forecasts was that, unlike in December, Fed officials no longer see economic growth reaching 3 percent -- this year, next year, the year after that, or in the long run.
The "central tendency" of their 2015 GDP growth forecast -- which excludes the top and bottom three of the 17 committee members' forecasts -- fell to a 2.3 to 2.7 percent range, from 2.6 to 3 percent. For next year, the range was reduced to 2.3 to 2.7 percent from 2.5 to 3 percent. For 2017, the range fell to 2 to 2.4 percent from 2.3 to 2.5 percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rased-1-of-the-dollar-s-value-in-a-single-day
One of the most striking aspects of the new set of forecasts was that, unlike in December, Fed officials no longer see economic growth reaching 3 percent -- this year, next year, the year after that, or in the long run.
The "central tendency" of their 2015 GDP growth forecast -- which excludes the top and bottom three of the 17 committee members' forecasts -- fell to a 2.3 to 2.7 percent range, from 2.6 to 3 percent. For next year, the range was reduced to 2.3 to 2.7 percent from 2.5 to 3 percent. For 2017, the range fell to 2 to 2.4 percent from 2.3 to 2.5 percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rased-1-of-the-dollar-s-value-in-a-single-day
Cresmont says SPX fair value is 758. The fair value goes up over time.
http://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-PE-Report.pdf
I read the book, and basically they said the same thing since 2010 in their 2010-2019 ten year forecast. They don't say when, and so we can still rally till whenever, and then crash before 2019.
http://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-PE-Report.pdf
I read the book, and basically they said the same thing since 2010 in their 2010-2019 ten year forecast. They don't say when, and so we can still rally till whenever, and then crash before 2019.