This article below was posted last night on cnbc after I posted my post on here, I really think Peter Schiff is reading my opinions on here, he said the same exact thing I mentioned on why the nasdaq was at 5000!!! I highlighted it in blue! Peter Schiff is 10000% correct, he is only one of the handful of people who agree why the markets are where they are today because of QE and the pumping done by the fed!
This is what I posted last night:
"well the smoke and mirrors leading up to 5000 today is the central banks, it is the free money, the free bailouts here and around the world...its the QE 1, its the QE 2 the QE 3 and soon to be QE 4, its the TARP, its the ludicrous valuations on these companies that are worth 1/100th of what they are valuing them at today...its the huge stock buybacks, its the ZERO % interest rates"
Nasdaq 5,000: Bubble or not?
Leslie Shaffer |
@LeslieShaffer1
10 Hours AgoCNBC.com
The Nasdaq index has rallied to levels matching its dotcom boom glory days, spawning a CNBC smackdown over whether the bubble is back too.
The bubble camp came out swinging.
"The Nasdaq wouldn't be here if not for quantitative easing. It wouldn't be here without zero percent interest rates. It wouldn't be here without unprecedented stock buybacks fueled by cheap money," Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, told CNBC. "You have all these artificial props which have lifted up the market and there's no way to sustain the market without those props."
The Nasdaq index last touched 5,000 in March of 2000, marking the peak of the dotcom bubble's euphoria -- or what some called hysteria -- before the index crashed around 80 percent to a nadir of 1108.49 in October of 2002. It's been a long climb back to its 5008.096 close on Monday.
What bubble?
But not everyone is convinced dotcom euphoria is making a revival.
"I'm not a perma-bull. I'm very interested in shorting overhyped, overvalued stocks," Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at Phoenix Financial, told CNBC, citing bets against
GoPro and
Tesla. "I don't believe we are in a bubble and I think the fundamentals bear that out," he said, citing then-and-now data.
"Back in 2000, you had no free cash flow yield, no dividend yield and no equity yield," Kaufman said, citing price-to-earnings ratios that were sometimes as high as 200. But now, the S&P information-technology sector has a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 times, while the semiconductor index has a dividend yield of 2.1 percent, above the
10-year U.S. Treasury yield and even the
S&P 500's 1.95 percent dividend yield, he noted.
Same old story
But Schiff's bubble camp isn't convinced by argument that the Nasdaq is different this time.
"There's never a bubble where it isn't different this time. That's how bubbles work and that's the one thing they all have in common," Schiff said. "Tech is not as overvalued relative to the rest of the market as it was in 2000, but that doesn't mean it's not a bubble."
Read More
The market is reaching a bubble. So what?
Schiff cited concerns overvaluation of some "hot" names, such as Uber.
"The valuation is absurd. And there's a lot of companies like Uber that are sporting these billion-dollar market caps. Many of these companies haven't made any money; many of them won't make any money," Schiff said. "This time around the difference is it's not a tech bubble, the entire U.S. economy is one gigantic bubble."
The Fed will do what?
Bryan Thomas | Getty Images
To be sure, Schiff's bubble argument has some hiccups. For one, he predicts that rather than raising interest rates -- as the market widely expects will happen this year -- the Federal Reserve will actually go for more quantitative easing. But he also expects that rising interest rates will decimate tech companies' free cash flow as they try to service the "enormous" debt they've taken on.
Tech start-ups typically raise venture capital or equity, not debt, and the rates on debt issued prior to a Fed hike likely wouldn't change.
—By CNBC.Com's Leslie Shaffer; Follow her on Twitter @LeslieShaffer1
Leslie ShafferWriter