Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

[Maverick74]

I suppose this was not intended as a response so much as a rant .Fair enough. In any event, nothing you've said here is inconsistent with anything I've said. Markets may be lagging, but that doesn't necessarily mean we're looking at the precursor to a bear market. I'll state it again: Markets are now tools public policy, not price discovery. They will not be permitted to drop in any meaningful way until and unless such a drop is consistent with a policy objective or those policy makers have lost control altogether, in which case the entire system will have fallen apart.

No, it wasn't a rant, I was stating the facts. Some of you guys have been around the markets for 2 or 3 years and act like you have 40 years of perspective. So let me help you out. Over that time span of 16 years, we had the Asian contagion of 1998 (pretty ugly correction), we had the tech crash of 2000 (90% correction in the nasdaq), we had the 9/11 correction (about 20%), we had the worst credit crisis in history from 2007 to 2009 (60% correction), we had the debt downgrade correction of 2011 (about 35%). This is all over a 16 year period! If you go back to the 1880's, you will be hard pressed to find any 16 year period that had this many serious corrections and crisis over a 16 year period. Christ buddy, we rallied after the assassination of JFK! We had a roaring bull market during the height of the Vietnam war. We started a bull market after Reagan took a bullet from Brady. I mean good lord people, look at history. The last 16 years has been tumultuous. But we rally for 2 or 3 years with a low vix and all the Illuminati bullshit comes out. "They" with their secret handshakes and perfect control over the markets.

Now there is some artificial forces at work in the interest rate market which yes, has a derivative effect on risk assets. When you take the return of money and set it at zero, that money can no longer sit in interest bearing accounts. It has to seek out risk. So it's going into stocks, real estate, art, collectibles, etc. I don't agree with that policy and yes, I think there will be long term consequences to keeping rates this low for this long. But there is no "they" who are holding the stock market up. The stock market is going up because of the substitution effect. As it becomes more expensive to hold money, the optimal decision is to substitute equity for cash. That's logical and expected. When the cost of holding money goes down and there actually is a return on money, then equities will feel the pressure.

But it's getting really old hat when guys think everything is rosy when we have experienced the most volatile and chaotic markets in over a century. The fact that you can't make money from it is your own problem. But saying the markets are never going to go down again is a childlike argument.

There are other reasons why are markets are so strong but I'd have to go deeper into economics and that will be pointless. I doubt you came here to learn anything.

 

[RedDuke]

No, it wasn't a rant, I was stating the facts. Some of you guys have been around the markets for 2 or 3 years and act like you have 40 years of perspective. So let me help you out. Over that time span of 16 years, we had the Asian contagion of 1998 (pretty ugly correction), we had the tech crash of 2000 (90% correction in the nasdaq), we had the 9/11 correction (about 20%), we had the worst credit crisis in history from 2007 to 2009 (60% correction), we had the debt downgrade correction of 2011 (about 35%). This is all over a 16 year period! If you go back to the 1880's, you will be hard pressed to find any 16 year period that had this many serious corrections and crisis over a 16 year period. Christ buddy, we rallied after the assassination of JFK! We had a roaring bull market during the height of the Vietnam war. We started a bull market after Reagan took a bullet from Brady. I mean good lord people, look at history. The last 16 years has been tumultuous. But we rally for 2 or 3 years with a low vix and all the Illuminati bullshit comes out. "They" with their secret handshakes and perfect control over the markets.

Now there is some artificial forces at work in the interest rate market which yes, has a derivative effect on risk assets. When you take the return of money and set it at zero, that money can no longer sit in interest bearing accounts. It has to seek out risk. So it's going into stocks, real estate, art, collectibles, etc. I don't agree with that policy and yes, I think there will be long term consequences to keeping rates this low for this long. But there is no "they" who are holding the stock market up. The stock market is going up because of the substitution effect. As it becomes more expensive to hold money, the optimal decision is to substitute equity for cash. That's logical and expected. When the cost of holding money goes down and there actually is a return on money, then equities will feel the pressure.

But it's getting really old hat when guys think everything is rosy when we have experienced the most volatile and chaotic markets in over a century. The fact that you can't make money from it is your own problem. But saying the markets are never going to go down again is a childlike argument.

There are other reasons why are markets are so strong but I'd have to go deeper into economics and that will be pointless. I doubt you came here to learn anything.

+100

Hm, for those who truly believe that markets are never going down just keep selling those naked puts at high leverage - free money after all.

 

[kashirin]

A 5% dip is a remote possibility. A major correction, on the other hand, is out-of-the-question. It simply will not be permitted.

Understand: Markets are now instruments of policy, not price discovery. Which means there will never be another major bear market, not to mention another crash. Won't happen so long as central banks remain at the controls.

And if, for some reason, they lose control, it is likely that there will be no more markets.

New Paradigm, friends. Stop fighting the power and deal with it.

it's kind of simple. Markets can be a policy tool and they're since 1988 crash. But look what happens. As market participants are given sense they are shielded then bubble is forming very quickly and eventually crashes no matter what central bank is doing

so If central banks want to limit downside they also must limit the upside to prevent bubbles from forming. I think we might start to see it right now when Russel had 10% correction but S&P barely moved

Although as a result I think distortion might become high after some time and who know what happens next
maybe even some sort of black market might appear like it appears in all kind of situations which involve price control

 

[tortoise]

No, it wasn't a rant, I was stating the facts. Some of you guys have been around the markets for 2 or 3 years and act like you have 40 years of perspective. So let me help you out. Over that time span of 16 years, we had the Asian contagion of 1998 (pretty ugly correction), we had the tech crash of 2000 (90% correction in the nasdaq), we had the 9/11 correction (about 20%), we had the worst credit crisis in history from 2007 to 2009 (60% correction), we had the debt downgrade correction of 2011 (about 35%). This is all over a 16 year period! If you go back to the 1880's, you will be hard pressed to find any 16 year period that had this many serious corrections and crisis over a 16 year period. Christ buddy, we rallied after the assassination of JFK! We had a roaring bull market during the height of the Vietnam war. We started a bull market after Reagan took a bullet from Brady. I mean good lord people, look at history. The last 16 years has been tumultuous. But we rally for 2 or 3 years with a low vix and all the Illuminati bullshit comes out. "They" with their secret handshakes and perfect control over the markets.

Now there is some artificial forces at work in the interest rate market which yes, has a derivative effect on risk assets. When you take the return of money and set it at zero, that money can no longer sit in interest bearing accounts. It has to seek out risk. So it's going into stocks, real estate, art, collectibles, etc. I don't agree with that policy and yes, I think there will be long term consequences to keeping rates this low for this long. But there is no "they" who are holding the stock market up. The stock market is going up because of the substitution effect. As it becomes more expensive to hold money, the optimal decision is to substitute equity for cash. That's logical and expected. When the cost of holding money goes down and there actually is a return on money, then equities will feel the pressure.

But it's getting really old hat when guys think everything is rosy when we have experienced the most volatile and chaotic markets in over a century. The fact that you can't make money from it is your own problem. But saying the markets are never going to go down again is a childlike argument.

There are other reasons why are markets are so strong but I'd have to go deeper into economics and that will be pointless. I doubt you came here to learn anything.

You jump to a lot of conclusions about, well, so many things.

I'll just say this:

At the moment, nothing before 2008 matters. Nothing.

When and if it does? There will be no more markets.

 

[tortoise]

it's kind of simple. Markets can be a policy tool and they're since 1988 crash. But look what happens. As market participants are given sense they are shielded then bubble is forming very quickly and eventually crashes no matter what central bank is doing

so If central banks want to limit downside they also must limit the upside to prevent bubbles from forming. I think we might start to see it right now when Russel had 10% correction but S&P barely moved

Although as a result I think distortion might become high after some time and who know what happens next
maybe even some sort of black market might appear like it appears in all kind of situations which involve price control

Yes. It's the black swan event that no one can predict or control. Would be much worse than 2008. And when we emerge from it, this world will look very different.

 

[tortoise]

(May want to Google-fu who you're dealing with)

Is this you?

Sooo...you have website will an astronomically insignificant Alexa rank? This is "who [I'm] dealing with"?

Is this a joke?

 

[Aileron]

No, it wasn't a rant, I was stating the facts. Some of you guys have been around the markets for 2 or 3 years and act like you have 40 years of perspective. So let me help you out. Over that time span of 16 years, we had the Asian contagion of 1998 (pretty ugly correction), we had the tech crash of 2000 (90% correction in the nasdaq), we had the 9/11 correction (about 20%), we had the worst credit crisis in history from 2007 to 2009 (60% correction), we had the debt downgrade correction of 2011 (about 35%). This is all over a 16 year period! If you go back to the 1880's, you will be hard pressed to find any 16 year period that had this many serious corrections and crisis over a 16 year period. Christ buddy, we rallied after the assassination of JFK! We had a roaring bull market during the height of the Vietnam war. We started a bull market after Reagan took a bullet from Brady. I mean good lord people, look at history. The last 16 years has been tumultuous. But we rally for 2 or 3 years with a low vix and all the Illuminati bullshit comes out. "They" with their secret handshakes and perfect control over the markets.

Now there is some artificial forces at work in the interest rate market which yes, has a derivative effect on risk assets. When you take the return of money and set it at zero, that money can no longer sit in interest bearing accounts. It has to seek out risk. So it's going into stocks, real estate, art, collectibles, etc. I don't agree with that policy and yes, I think there will be long term consequences to keeping rates this low for this long. But there is no "they" who are holding the stock market up. The stock market is going up because of the substitution effect. As it becomes more expensive to hold money, the optimal decision is to substitute equity for cash. That's logical and expected. When the cost of holding money goes down and there actually is a return on money, then equities will feel the pressure.

But it's getting really old hat when guys think everything is rosy when we have experienced the most volatile and chaotic markets in over a century. The fact that you can't make money from it is your own problem. But saying the markets are never going to go down again is a childlike argument.

There are other reasons why are markets are so strong but I'd have to go deeper into economics and that will be pointless. I doubt you came here to learn anything.

I wish I could +1 or "like" or thumb-up comments ...

 

[Aileron]

Is this you?

Sooo...you have website will an astronomically insignificant Alexa rank? This is "who [I'm] dealing with"?

Is this a joke?

Yeup. You didn't get all of the data, so I'll help you fill it in a bit more.

The guy that has 3 emails sitting here, and more from remote firms, because now I get to dump NNT because I have a weekly verifiable 3.19 sharpe ratio even using a higher RFR of 0.75% annual with over 600 BPS return YTD with a drawdown number of less than 0.80%, which puts me in the 1% of money managers on this planet? The guy that got the 2008 crash right, and the 2009 rebound publicly? The guy with channels teaching people to speak different languages? The guy that studies 14 languages? You mean that guy?

Yes. I'm that guy.

I gave 3 farts to the wind about doing NNT forever when I started it, and said so. Once I found out that remote trading was a possibility?

BHHUUYYEEE!!!!!

 

[SunTrader]

...the balls to hold??

??????

 

[Maverick74]

You jump to a lot of conclusions about, well, so many things.

I'll just say this:

At the moment, nothing before 2008 matters. Nothing.

When and if it does? There will be no more markets.

Your cryptic speak is really cute but this statement has nothing to do with your thesis which seems to jump all over the place. Despite your obvious failed attempt at data mining, you still come up short. So you say nothing else matters since 2008. Well why did "they" let the market drop 35% in 2011? Why did "they" let the VIX go from 14 to 68? Why did "they" let many high beta and financial stocks take 50% to 60% hits in 2011? "They" are suppose to have all this power and absolutely refuse to let markets go down, except of course for that debacle in 2011 where everything got absolutely crushed. Yeah....OK. Got it.