Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$
- Thread starter makloda
- Start date
How come no matter what they always have a way to spin any market as being bullish....
It's the most boring market ever, and that's bullish
Jeff Cox | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
33 Mins Ago
The 2015 version of the U.S. stock market has felt like a six-month thrill ride to nowhere.
In fact, by one measure—the amount of time the S&P 500 has spent above or below 3.5 percent from its starting point—this has been the most boring market ever. Another barometer measuring the amount of triple-digit moves by the Dow industrials tells a different story.
Either way, it's been a weirdly volatile yet flat market, and the really strange thing is this: That could set up nicely for a second-half rally.
The S&P 500 has not at any point this year been up or down more than 3.5 percent, a first for the broad market index, according to an analysis from Paul Hickey of Bespoke Investment Group. With a strong gain in Wednesday's rally, the index still was poised to be up less than 0.5 percent for the first half.
With no other years that were as extreme in their movement around level ground, Hickey looked at previous six-month starts where the index never moved more than 5 percent in either direction. He found a bullish bias, with the average gain 6.01 percent and the median 5.63 percent. More tellingly, not one of those 10 years saw a market that finished in the red.
The comparatively docile overall picture from the market contrasts with multiple violent daily moves along the way, like the Greece-inspired selloff Monday and the subsequent rebound.
The Dow industrials have seen triple-digit moves in 40 percent of all trading days so far, according to Jeff Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James.
Saut is a long-term bull who like many others sees a market where smart investors are more concerned with protection from steep losses than trying to mine for big gains.
To that effect, the forecasts for the rest of the year remain primarily in two camps: From the caution of Goldman Sachs, which believes there is little upside left for the market over the next six and even 12 months, and the undaunted optimism of Piper Jaffray, which is not wavering from a 2,350 forecast on the S&P 500 that would require 13.2 percent upside from the current level.
It's the most boring market ever, and that's bullish
Jeff Cox | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
33 Mins Ago
The 2015 version of the U.S. stock market has felt like a six-month thrill ride to nowhere.
In fact, by one measure—the amount of time the S&P 500 has spent above or below 3.5 percent from its starting point—this has been the most boring market ever. Another barometer measuring the amount of triple-digit moves by the Dow industrials tells a different story.
Either way, it's been a weirdly volatile yet flat market, and the really strange thing is this: That could set up nicely for a second-half rally.
The S&P 500 has not at any point this year been up or down more than 3.5 percent, a first for the broad market index, according to an analysis from Paul Hickey of Bespoke Investment Group. With a strong gain in Wednesday's rally, the index still was poised to be up less than 0.5 percent for the first half.
With no other years that were as extreme in their movement around level ground, Hickey looked at previous six-month starts where the index never moved more than 5 percent in either direction. He found a bullish bias, with the average gain 6.01 percent and the median 5.63 percent. More tellingly, not one of those 10 years saw a market that finished in the red.
The comparatively docile overall picture from the market contrasts with multiple violent daily moves along the way, like the Greece-inspired selloff Monday and the subsequent rebound.
The Dow industrials have seen triple-digit moves in 40 percent of all trading days so far, according to Jeff Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James.
Saut is a long-term bull who like many others sees a market where smart investors are more concerned with protection from steep losses than trying to mine for big gains.
To that effect, the forecasts for the rest of the year remain primarily in two camps: From the caution of Goldman Sachs, which believes there is little upside left for the market over the next six and even 12 months, and the undaunted optimism of Piper Jaffray, which is not wavering from a 2,350 forecast on the S&P 500 that would require 13.2 percent upside from the current level.
Yes, that's it. Greece was never really material for NA markets, any drop was psychological in nature ( your reaction to these things is a good example of that ). What would be material is interest rate hikes. However, the impact will be far less then a delusional guy like you dreams about.
Ranting about "historical highs" is stupid. Once a market is at highs, the chances of setting new highs is quite good. This has always been the case. The markets are clearly NOT going straight up, it's been a flat year, as I've reminded you several times, but this doesn't seem to phase you from ranting on and on with the same tired themes on a weekly sometimes daily basis. Yesterday, I was going to forecast you'd be ranting on here today as your dreams of TZA glory disappear at least for the moment. But that was too easy a forecast, you are very reliable on this.
It is utterly amazing how off the wall you are emotionally on a year where US markets have done absolutely nothing.
I was predicting oil to go down to 57 which it did today. It should hit 54 in a week. Gold should rally like 3%. BSV is selling off that shows that the chance that we should get a rate hike next month is increasing. General market should also go down after some sideways action.
Lunch rally fell apart, you can bet it will pop back up before the close.
As usual the stock index futures will rise overnight