Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

[Rickshaw Man]

No one is falling for the fed to raise rates in 2015....0.30% is where most see the fed funds rate by end of 2015....in a month or 3 that will be 0%....this shows how the fed has lost every single fucking ounce of credibility .....this market is now running on borrowed time....the fed will not raise rates for next few years...and once the recession comes any rate hike will be taken back immediately that's why I predict no rate hikes for at least 5 more years ....they can't move rates up at all without interrupting this 6 year old tired bull market......there will be great lessons to be learned after the next crisis is here...


The longer U.S. central bankers wait to initiate their tightening cycle, the more traders push back their expectations for when borrowing costs will start rising. On Thursday, futures contracts were implying that traders saw the fed funds rate at about 0.3 percent rate by December. That’s the lowest estimate of the year, and about half the forecast for the overnight lending benchmark that the Fed gave in March

The market is essentially calling the Fed’s bluff. Traders are betting that policy makers won’t be able to raise rates this year without disrupting stocks and bonds, something that they’d really rather not do. So either U.S. policy makers will have to risk another market-wide tantrum, or they’ll give in to traders who embrace the idea of these historically low borrowing costs sticking around for longer.“In the end, the Fed is more likely to ‘cave’ to the market as opposed to ‘fight it’ by hiking when the market does not have it priced in,” Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research LLC, said in an e-mail. The Fed still sees low rates “as beneficial and does not want to undermine all the work they have done over the past several years.”

Hike Timing

In the meantime, Fed members are amping up their rhetoric that yes, a rate hike is coming, yes, it’ll probably be this year, and no, it may not be an easy ride for markets.Liftoff “feels most probable somewhere in the late summer than the early summer, but early summer is not out of the question,” David Altig, research head at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said in an interview in Madrid on Wednesday.A day earlier, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williamssaid the U.S. central bank could decide to begin raising interest rates at any policy meeting, and that he is in “wait and see mode” headed into the next gathering in June.The New York Fed’s William C. Dudley had some starker words for traders that same day: when central bankers make their move, they’ll usher in a “regime shift” that will stir markets. Dudley, who is vice chairman of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, said the timing of a hike is uncertain.

Data Disappointment

While the U.S. economy is showing signs of recovery after more than six years of unprecedented Fed stimulus, some of the economic data keeps disappointing. One of the latest examples is retail sales that barely budged in April, confounding analyst projections for a small increase.As the unemployment rate has fallen to 5.4 percent from as high as 10 percent in 2009, workers still aren’t earning materially bigger paychecks or returning to their erstwhile spendthrift ways.While the global bond market has lost hundreds of billions of dollars in May, short-term debt yields haven’t changed much - - another sign investors don’t expect the Fed to end the stimulus party anytime soon. Yields on 2-year Treasuries have fallen to 0.55 percent from 0.57 percent on April 30.Fed members can keep warning traders of shocks that are soon to come, but a lot of folks just aren’t buying it.

I doubt they will ever raise rates. They have shown time and time again. They just keep changing the metrics. Bernanke said once the employment rates falls below 6.00% they will start raising rates....Were now at 5.4%. I bet we fall under 5.00% and they still won't raise. They will point to retail sales or GDP...It's a circus.

 

[S2007S]

"THE RALLY IS JUST GETTING STARTED"
thats what Ralph Acampora said today.....so the bull market thats already 6 years old and is up 200%+ is just getting started?

Reminds me of 2007 all over again....



Here's why you have to buy stocks: Acampora
Amanda Diaz | @CNBCDiaz
2 Hours Ago


Stocks snapped back from a three-day losing streak on Thursday, with the Dow rising 1 percent and the S&P 500 closing at a record high. And while many market participants question how long stocks can maintain their momentum, one top technician says the rally is just getting started.

"There are two ways of looking at the market, you can anticipate a move or react to it," technical analyst Ralph Acampora said Thursday on CNBC's "Futures Now." "I think people need to react more because so far there hasn't been a major correction."



As of Thursday, the market hasn't seen a correction in 740 trading sessions, or since late 2011. But according to Acampora, head of technical analysis at Altaira, the broad market trend is still quite healthy. "Until you see the major moving averages broken, until you see the trends broken," there is no need to worry, he said. "We can stay in this range for a while and so far, the leading averages look just fine."



Of the lull in volatility, Acampora said it doesn't bother him that the VIX remains low. "We've had the VIX somewhere between 17 and 10 since the correction in 2011," he said. "That's not a sign of complacency, that's a sign of strength." Traders often look to the VIX to gauge the level of fear in the market, as a spike in the VIX tends to correspond with a selloff in stocks.

As far as where the market is heading, the so-called godfather of technical analysis sees another 7 to 8 percent upside in the S&P 500 by the end of the year. "I see the market going anywhere from 2,250 to 2,300," he said.

In any event, to Acampora, the message is clear: "Don't fight the trend. This [market] looks very, very good."

 

[S2007S]

So today the markets are trading flat and this is after news that

1. Economists cut forecast for economic growth in the 2nd qu and FULL YEAR, from 3% to 2.5%, a whole 1/2% yet the markets are trading at historical highs...

2. Consumer sentiment misses by a huge margin, stocks still don't care

3. Industrial output falls for 5 STRAIGHT MONTHS!!!!!! 5 Straight months and the markets are at historical highs....nothing, and I mean nothing can bring this market down, economic numbers are just missing left and right yet markets keep ignoring this fact, how can anyone take these numbers and spin them as good, I don't understand how this market is trading at historical highs as GDP figures keep on falling, I really think the next recession will only boost the dow to 20,000, there is nothing at all that can stop this market, this could be a 23 year bull market in the making without there ever being a correction of 10% or more, I don't know when or if reality will ever kick in, but when it does its going to be quite a picture to see, history will be written when that takes place and the true market finally shows itself......


Economists slash 2015 growth forecasts: Philly Fed
2 Hours AgoReuters



Economists cut their forecasts for U.S. economic growth in the second quarter and full year, and trimmed expectations for U.S. labor market gains.

Economists see the economy growing at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the current quarter, according to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's quarterly survey of 44 forecasters, released on Friday. In last quarter's survey, released in February, growth for this quarter was forecast at 3.0 percent.

Read MoreConsumer sentiment posts big miss in May

Third-quarter 2015 growth was forecast at 3.1 percent, up from an estimate of 2.8 percent in February's survey, though full-year growth for 2015 was forecast at 2.4 percent, down from the previous estimate of 3.2 percent.

The pace of hiring was expected to decelerate in the current quarter compared with previous expectations, with an average rate of monthly nonfarm job growth seen around 195,300 versus a previous forecast of 233,800. For the third quarter, job growth is expected to average 223,300, a touch higher than the prior forecast of 222,000.

Read MoreUS industrial output falls for 5th straight month

Hiring should average 243,900 a month for all of 2015, compared with the prior full-year forecast of 252,500.

The jobless rate was expected to be 5.4 percent at the end of the current quarter and 5.3 percent by the end of the third quarter. The February survey had forecast a rate of 5.5 percent by the end of the current quarter.

The most recent official unemployment rate released by the government showed the jobless rate in April at 5.4 percent.

 

[Rickshaw Man]

Remember...Mondays are always up....starts Sunday evening with the stock index futures floating higher for the Monday morning new blasting " LOOKS LIKE A HIGHER OPEN ON WALLSTREET" and in keeping with tradition the VIX will gap up.

Lets revisit this Monday morning and you can see how my 15 years of following the index futures can make you rich also....BUY THE CLOSE PEOPLE.....I CERTAINALY WILL

 

[Rickshaw Man]

Watch what happens in ES after the cash close. We have a possible bearish candle setup in the daily's . They will try and void the setup, so watch closely.

 

[Rickshaw Man]

Here they go trying to push it up into the close, glad im long.

 

[Rickshaw Man]

So dang easy making free money when you know what's going to happen..haha.

 

[Rickshaw Man]

Under normal circumstances this would be cause for alarm....trust me these are not normal circumstances. This is a market that has been taken over by the central bank and they are not going to let it fall.

 

[romik]

I switched to Heikin Ashi.

 

[Rickshaw Man]

I'm betting we get our usual VIX gap up on the Monday open