Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

[hajimow]

Warning signs that you can use to identify stocks to short:
1-when a company increases the dividend to stop weakness in the stock and the dividend is more than 70% of their per share. For example if one year earning is $4 and the company increases dividend from 50 cents to 75 cents which will be $3 per year which is over 70% of $4, that is a warning sign.
2- When a company announces a big buyback which will require a capital over 70% of holding cash which usually the money may come from selling debt with lower interest rates, that is a big warning sign. These kinds of buybacks never materialize and if they do the company puts itself in danger of being cash strapped.
Basically those two signs mean the company is out of growth but does not want to be a short target.

 

[S2007S]

Warning signs that you can use to identify stocks to short:
1-when a company increases the dividend to stop weakness in the stock and the dividend is more than 70% of their per share. For example if one year earning is $4 and the company increases dividend from 50 cents to 75 cents which will be $3 per year which is over 70% of $4, that is a warning sign.
2- When a company announces a big buyback which will require a capital over 70% of holding cash which usually the money may come from selling debt with lower interest rates, that is a big warning sign. These kinds of buybacks never materialize and if they do the company puts itself in danger of being cash strapped.
Basically those two signs mean the company is out of growth but does not want to be a short target.

Big buybacks have been keeping earnings afloat for how many years now, its been a red flag on my check list for quite sometime, but it continues to be ignored....

 

[noddyboy]

Warning signs that you can use to identify stocks to short:
1-when a company increases the dividend to stop weakness in the stock and the dividend is more than 70% of their per share. For example if one year earning is $4 and the company increases dividend from 50 cents to 75 cents which will be $3 per year which is over 70% of $4, that is a warning sign.
2- When a company announces a big buyback which will require a capital over 70% of holding cash which usually the money may come from selling debt with lower interest rates, that is a big warning sign. These kinds of buybacks never materialize and if they do the company puts itself in danger of being cash strapped.
Basically those two signs mean the company is out of growth but does not want to be a short target.

But I get better leverage with indices like IWM at Interactive Brokers. If we know IWM is all bad stuff, why not just short all of them. Look at HLF -- I am sure the bear is correct, but is it really worth it after all the public humiliation and now Federal investigation?

 

[S2007S]

Oil is just dropping dropping dropping, if we break january lows and drop below 40 oil is going to 2008-2009 lows very quickly, I wouldn't doubt seeing it drop below 30 at that point, get ready for MASSIVE volatility.....



WTI dips below $45, US oil rig count falls

• OIL45.10
  -1.95-4.14%
  
  
  

 

[Covertibility]

I thought the frackers needed $70 oil to remain profitable, what's going on with these people? Is everybody still fracking at losses hoping for higher oil or is there something else going on?

 

[noddyboy]

I thought the frackers needed $70 oil to remain profitable, what's going on with these people? Is everybody still fracking at losses hoping for higher oil or is there something else going on?

Not profitable to service bank loans, but they still have to do it to get cash flow as far as possible.

 

[hajimow]

I thought the frackers needed $70 oil to remain profitable, what's going on with these people? Is everybody still fracking at losses hoping for higher oil or is there something else going on?

Many have laid off most of their employees. Gas prices are still manipulated big time in US and does not reflect the real oil price. Oil went down from $95 to $45 and gas in California dropped from $3.8 to $2.5 and then oil went up from $45 to $50 and and gas is now back to $3.80 !!!!

 

[hajimow]

I consider dropping oil price very dangerous to the market that surprisingly is ignored.

 

[noddyboy]

I consider dropping oil price very dangerous to the market that surprisingly is ignored.

Dropping oil is bullish in and of itself. For example, if we discover nuclear fusion, markets should rally as mankind is more productive. But dropping oil might represent a latent variable that the market is not pricing in (eg China slowdown, Global slowdown) -- and in that sense, it is bearish.

 

[S2007S]

On another note check out this news!!!!

Pushing up against that debt ceiling again, uh oh, what to do what to do what to do what to do...

Lew to Congress: Temporary funding measures started
Jacob Pramuk | @jacobpramuk
4 Mins AgoCNBC.com



The U.S. Treasury has temporarily stopped issuing state and local government bonds ahead of the looming breach of the debt limit, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew told Congress on Friday.

The step will be followed by other "extraordinary measures" the Treasury can take to fund the government temporarily once the U.S. reaches its statutory debt ceiling on Monday. It sets up a political chess match to raise the government's borrowing authority before it exhausts its cash and defaults on its obligations.


"Because Congress has not yet acted to raise the debt limit, the Treasury Department will have to employ further extraordinary measures to continue to finance the government on a temporary basis," Lew wrote in a letter addressed to House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio.

Lew to Congress: You have 10 days to hike ceiling
Lew plans to declare a "debt issuance suspension period" in which the Treasury will temporarily stop investment in certain federal pension funds, among other measures.

Congress in February 2014 passed the Temporary Debt Limit Extension Act, which suspended the statutory debt limit through Sunday. The Congressional Budget Office said earlier this month that if Congress does not raise the federal debt limit, the Treasury Department will exhaust all of its borrowing capacity and run out of cash in October or November, slightly later than a previous forecast.

"I respectfully urge Congress to raise the debt limit as soon as possible," Lew wrote.

Read MoreUS cash may run dry by fall without debt deal: CBO

The debt ceiling, which has been raised 74 times in the last five decades, is a perennial political football in Washington. Under President Barack Obama, the limit has been hiked five times, fewer than predecessors George W. Bush and Bill Clinton.

The most recent debt ceiling was $17.2 trillion and debt accumulated since last year's suspension brings the total to $18.1 trillion, the CBO said earlier this month.