Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$
- Thread starter makloda
- Start date
Next year will be interesting.
You have better odds in Vegas then the triple etfs you buy against trend. Your money in DGAZ fairly quickly lost 50% ( 65% on the initial trade ) and even on a rebound day and all that "cost averaging" you believe in you are down roughly 30-35% on every dollar you put in. When a truly good short term opportunity showed up, like going long QQQ a week or so ago, you refused to play it. That's your bias ruining your trading.
Here's the acid test. If you have several times lost 20-50%+ in a matter of days on your trades, you have to have 20-50%++ gains in a matter of days on some of your trades. From what I have seen you are unable to do this; your profitable trades are for much lower returns. So that invalidates your approach unless you hit a lottery pick and stick with it. Buying lottery tickets with huge decay after hours is not +EV.
My market prognosis going forward for Tuesday, still lots of risk about, the mkt hasn't yet hit clear air, still flying thru turbulence so expect surprises.
SP500 mildly bullish, metals more bearish than bullish, gold undecided, neither bearish nor bullish, but I'm leaning toward gold creeping up over time. While on this subject, gold is not a good trading commodity, it's too speculative and difficult to trade imo, better off to be buying lithium or copper stocks.
Healthcare stocks appears to be the most bullish, except Glaxo Kline.
SP500 mildly bullish, metals more bearish than bullish, gold undecided, neither bearish nor bullish, but I'm leaning toward gold creeping up over time. While on this subject, gold is not a good trading commodity, it's too speculative and difficult to trade imo, better off to be buying lithium or copper stocks.
Healthcare stocks appears to be the most bullish, except Glaxo Kline.
5s and 2s have already inverted, Defcon 3.
10s and 2s would be Defcon 2.
Recession = Defcon 1.
The same bond market move happening now occurred before the last three recessions
- Bespoke studied what happens when short term interest rates rise above longer term rates and found that when the 3-year and 5-year spread inverts, as it did Monday, other spreads soon follow, and so does a recession.
- In the last three recessions, the curve of the 3-year and 5-year had inverted an average 26.3 months before the recession.
- The worst stock market performance is not when the yield is inverting, but after it begins to steepen again, according to Bespoke.
Published 1 Hour AgoUpdated 20 Mins Ago
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/04/the...ccurred-before-the-last-three-recessions.html
