Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

[trickshot]

How do you figure this?

Fed fund futures now indicate a higher % of chance that the fed will hike in Dec, treasuries crashed today (2yr note +8 basis pts), dollar up huge vs everything, gold tanks etc.

 

[trickshot]

So the dollar rockets on a hawkish fed, bonds tank and stocks soar, all of these points to panicky asset managers rotating out of treasuries into stocks, I got a feeling these guys will be buying the highs and selling the lows again.

Got a a limit order to sell ES at 2095, hopefully it will be filled overnight.

Stop for the trade, if order gets filled, will be 8 pts.

 

[Pricechange]

Fed fund futures now indicate a higher % of chance that the fed will hike in Dec, treasuries crashed today (2yr note +8 basis pts), dollar up huge vs everything, gold tanks etc.

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index...isk-in-the-sp500.85694/page-1197#post-4197719

You said Fed seldom hikes in Dec? and you were right back when you said that

I think there was also general agreement that Dollar's higher moves are caused by other currencies in the DX basket being less and less valuable (Yen and Euro in steep downward moves in a longterm trend). Gold/treasuries tank because we are in a "risk off" (dovish) environment. Fed funds futures...I don't put much emphasis in that indicator at all...I think banks are the main buyers of those futures

 

[trickshot]

the other day you said the Fed never raises rates in Dec?

Not likely, but never say never, btw the odds have gone up for March and the months following that as well.

 

[Visaria]

There's a low possibility of a surprise rate increase next month. It would be unusual to do so given Nov is not a fed meeting month. Still when you consider that the fed and the big banks support each other and the banks do want higher rates, they could do it.

 

[trickshot]

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index...isk-in-the-sp500.85694/page-1197#post-4197719

You said Fed never hikes in Dec?

I said rarely, never say never.

 

[trickshot]

There's a low possibility of a surprise rate increase next month. It would be unusual to do so given Nov is not a fed meeting month. Still when you consider that the fed and the big banks support each other and the banks do want higher rates, they could do it.

It'd only be positive for financials, can't see how it'd benefit other sectors on the S&P.

 

[Pricechange]

I said rarely, never say never.

only reason your stop may be hit is because the market will trend downward a bit after such big moves upward...after trending down within the channel, it will keep moving higher through Christmas (above the ATH)..fail to hike in Nov will cause a move above 2134 (by the way Nov starts next week)..fail to hike in Dec will cause a Christmas rally

Apple, Baba, Google, Microsoft, Amazon expectations of earnings going into Christmas are beyond bullish....why fight the tape?

 

[i960]

On Sept 17, spy/iwm/qqq options were basically untradeable for awhile just prior and after that announcement...I've kept that in mind for this one...basically there is no out once it starts moving (at least for a decent amount of time)...

I actually get filled pretty easily in ES, even at midpoint at times. Are you guys using IB? Are you using SMART? Make sure it isn't using SMART orders.

 

[kashirin]

So the dollar rockets on a hawkish fed, bonds tank and stocks soar, all of these points to panicky asset managers rotating out of treasuries into stocks, I got a feeling these guys will be buying the highs and selling the lows again.

Got a a limit order to sell ES at 2095, hopefully it will be filled overnight.

from what we saw in the last 3 months today price action doesn't make sense at all
market teaches the Fed aggressively not to hike and this time should be the same
the question is only when it starts
the definitely should've hiked today

I shorted ES at the close wtih initial price target 1950
stop 2110