Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

i don't really follow earnings but afaik, so far, earnings have been below analysts' forecasts. Yet the market has barely moved. To me, it appears that the market wants to move higher but needs a catalyst. Now imagine if a big name comes out with blowout earnings far better than expected. Could that be a catalyst?
 
Visaria said:
i don't really follow earnings but afaik, so far, earnings have been below analysts' forecasts. Yet the market has barely moved. To me, it appears that the market wants to move higher but needs a catalyst. Now imagine if a big name comes out with blowout earnings far better than expected. Could that be a catalyst?
More...

I have no idea.

I trade based on what I see, probably you do the same, I've traded divergence based patterns for many years now, I would say I specialise in histogram v price divergences and that 1 bar histogram that appeared on THAT many indexes and currencies too AND on monthly time frame is a huge worry. Now, I don't do fundamental research, I don't see the point as there can be a million opinions on whether this data is good or bad for the market, these opinions fight it out on charts. You may find it laughable, but I tell you 1 bar histogram failure is a massive sentiment shift. This time it points to downside and we've been climbing for quite a while, this isn't selling at low point, but at high. We shall see.
 
Oh look a bearish candle in the daily SP500 cash index. You know what that means, just like last October, November, and December. Jam the futures up overnight...Watch and learn cavemen.
 

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Of the gentle breeze and winds falling
The timeless turning toward the distance
What fate may bring as these wheels turn
And of fortune, he will only say....

But as he speaks, I ride along and listen
For he has chosen this path
And I the rider can disembark at any time
Where it will take me, I do not know
But I will ride along for a while
For it is not the destination that really matters
But rather the journey is what I prize
 
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ES Day.png

ES Day Chart
We are at the cross roads!

The Bears: For a valid bear market we need a significant (lower) peak either at current levels or somewhere between here and the all time high.
Potential Trades: Short at 2037, 2040 and 2043. (Stops above 2043)

The Bulls: A nice rally behind our back. For an extended rally we either need slow consistent moves north in line with low volatility, or periodic minor corrections followed by strong bulls. A sudden burst to 2131 is the lowest of possibilities and not common (yet not impossible). The current challenge is the 2043 barrier (significant) and the 2063 blue return line (less significant). The 2043 represents the union of both the falling bear trend, and the horizontal resistance/supply zone.
Potential Trades: Long at 2022, 2001 and 1991.

The Scalpers, Day Traders and Range Traders: Trading zone 2021-2041.

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(note: this is no invitation to buy or sell but a subjective outlook)
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