Very well said, totally agree
Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$
- Thread starter makloda
- Start date
Very well said, totally agree
For anyone whose as big of a trading junkie as me, here is some youtube recordings of a trader i deeply admire, im listening to these as i do my spreadsheets today to track last weeks stats.
This guy was first place out of 40000 traders in an E-Trade contest in 1999, he made an astronomical return and was rewarded a million bucks, at a time when everyone was making their money long he was the one shorting. Now the size he swings on short daytrading positions is absolutely insane 100k plus positions, are a walk in the park, these videos are a clinic on short selling.
The first video is more on his life, which i find interesting, but if you want to get into the nitty gritty of how he views the market as a shark, skip to video 2, this guys the real deal, unfortunately trolls chased him off of twitter, he used to make calls that were 90% accurate, but he cut everyone off, when internet trolls wouldnt quit harassing him.
The biggest thing I learned from this guy was that your entry determines your risk, not your exit...... meaning the further you buy/sell a stock from the support or resistance point, the bigger your risk is, its a point ive been trying to make but clearly struggling with in this thread i guess, lol.
A large part of what i know about shorting is based on this guys thought process.
This guy was first place out of 40000 traders in an E-Trade contest in 1999, he made an astronomical return and was rewarded a million bucks, at a time when everyone was making their money long he was the one shorting. Now the size he swings on short daytrading positions is absolutely insane 100k plus positions, are a walk in the park, these videos are a clinic on short selling.
The first video is more on his life, which i find interesting, but if you want to get into the nitty gritty of how he views the market as a shark, skip to video 2, this guys the real deal, unfortunately trolls chased him off of twitter, he used to make calls that were 90% accurate, but he cut everyone off, when internet trolls wouldnt quit harassing him.
The biggest thing I learned from this guy was that your entry determines your risk, not your exit...... meaning the further you buy/sell a stock from the support or resistance point, the bigger your risk is, its a point ive been trying to make but clearly struggling with in this thread i guess, lol.
A large part of what i know about shorting is based on this guys thought process.
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These are very good points, I'd like to add in a few things...the challenge to S/R trading on a stand-alone basis have to do with WHEN those S/R levels are hit...as a for instance, the best short in the markets over the past few months (post 8-24 collapse) was on 9/17 at the FOMC spike highs...the best long entry was late in the day 2 days prior to the week payrolls number...Granted there have been numerous intermediate opportunities to get long/short, but the challenges nowadays compared to years past are that the when and where have become more convoluted with how globally interconnected all of the markets have become...(we still see routine flushes of all levels in overnight markets, only to open as if nothing happened)...
When i say only sell resistance and buy support, i dont necessarily mean on a daily, i mean if you want to go countertrend on something thats gone parabolic, dont short into the front side of the move, wait for the five minute chart to bounce the highs twice, then sell based on that high, so its not like the only time i buy/sell is based on DAILY support/resistance, although it helps, dont know if that makes any sense but i hope it does, lol.
The thing is, the only difference i see between a 5 minute and a daily is the difference in the time you are measuring the move, daily charts constantly look identical to 5 minute charts, its just a different time frame, different way of measuring the same move. Then 1 minute charts look the same as well...... its all just a different way of measuring it so when i say buy support/sell resistance, i mean do it on a 1 min chart, do it on a 5 min chart, do it on a daily chart, depending on what your time frame, and style of trading is. As a trader our job is to decipher what time frame its setting up on, but the more time frames its setting up on the better, and obviously our job as a trader is to determine whether that support/resistance will hold, but still always trade around that number.
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There is a specific pattern around LHs in downtrends and around HLs in uptrends that offer very little challenge. However, it must be known.
Personally, the manner in which i960 took advantage of this upswing is more in line with the way I play the markets...Namely, I will trade options directionally, albeit I probably spread them off too quickly and reduce the upside potential...But there are pitfalls to how I go about it and I let "bias" creep in more often than I would like...hence, why I really have to force myself to set up spreads on both sides of the market...
I was away from the market about 90 minutes after the Fri, 10/2 rally and I was not hedged properly for that upside swing...then comes Monday and the rally continues...and this is where I need alot of improvement because I am still hyper-focused on figuring out how to deal with the existing positions without focusing on the fact that the market broke thru several levels of resistance and was going to make it back to at least 1980 (as i960 mentioned)...
It was very reminiscent of 8/19-21 prior to the collapse on 8/24...a unidirectional move that really was just a textbook trend, but I get so accustomed to choppy ranges and the "back and forth" and that when's the one way trends emerge...I know this stuff, but the "bias" and the "position bias" especially are not a good combination...
Anyway, it's become a really good thread recently, hopefully it continues...
I was away from the market about 90 minutes after the Fri, 10/2 rally and I was not hedged properly for that upside swing...then comes Monday and the rally continues...and this is where I need alot of improvement because I am still hyper-focused on figuring out how to deal with the existing positions without focusing on the fact that the market broke thru several levels of resistance and was going to make it back to at least 1980 (as i960 mentioned)...
It was very reminiscent of 8/19-21 prior to the collapse on 8/24...a unidirectional move that really was just a textbook trend, but I get so accustomed to choppy ranges and the "back and forth" and that when's the one way trends emerge...I know this stuff, but the "bias" and the "position bias" especially are not a good combination...
Anyway, it's become a really good thread recently, hopefully it continues...
I think one of the difficulties this year is in how ES has changed personalities continuously as various events have come up, sentiment and attitudes changing, and just plain market indecision. It can come across as schitzophrenic. One gets used to its personality and games and then next thing you know its acting straightforward with much less nonsense than usual. Hard to "trust" at times.
Yes...in fact there was a point in late Sept where the thing was selling off in a very controlled manner, VIX was basically just drifting higher and tech stocks were just starting to break down..meanwhile the Russell was really weak and various other indicies broke below their August lows...that gap up on 9/30 that didn't fill and the 10/2 payroll didn't initially get my attention as I saw enough evidence in Russell that it was truly weak...but again, I'm basing this on stuff that USED to be visible, prior to the constant Fed influence...
As I alluded to earlier, I'm just going to have to force myself to set up spreads in both directions and let this thing go wherever it wants to go...Whereas I used to have a better feel for intermediate moves, I'm not going there any longer...the risk on/off shift on a dime.
h&s on ES from friday looks like it's about to break
I thought I would post a chart of USD, as you can see it's an interesting juncture, where we go from here depends on the FED or does it depend on China? Anyhow, this is definitely a pivotal and as soon as we get a clear indication where interest rates are heading it would be time to either buy or sell USD.
Just to add, 97.17 also happens to be a 75% retrace zone from 174.72 and current low of 71.33. That is phenomenal!
Just to add, 97.17 also happens to be a 75% retrace zone from 174.72 and current low of 71.33. That is phenomenal!
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