gotta laugh at the cnbc guys

Quote from S2007S:

Since this credit crisis the only way the economic system can function is through Bubble ben bernankes easy money policies along with trillions in stimulus, that is the only reason behind this 100% run since the bottom only 2 short years ago, strip every bit of stimulus and bailout money out of this market and this and there would not have been anything close to a 10% rally off the lows set just 2 years ago.

There is no such thing as a free market, they never seem to let the economic cycle take its own course, there is always intervention when things are going south, thats why it leads to the crisis were in now. The longer they keep spending to keep the economy on its feet the more problems this economy will have.
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Don't worry. As a bear you can be happy because you have 100% certainty that all markets will eventually go to 0. The question is will you live to see it? :D
 
Quote from denner:

It's a bit funny and sad, but I remember the 2005-07 period (actually should just be amended to 2003-07), and guys were still stuck with the memories of 98-02 and the really good two way volatility, very liquid options markets, good side by side action with electronic vs pits, etc...So, the 03-07 was a letdown for many as the ranges contracted and the movement towards all electronic and less transparency arrived.

And definitely going back into the 1990s things were world's apart from now. Nobody really lived under the impressions that if some entity got into deep enough shit that the world would stop to cater to them. I suppose LTCM started us down this road, but that's not entirely true...the Mexican bailout arranged by Rubin is in there amongst other things.

There is no question that they've made it abundantly clear that rising stock prices are a policy tool and with far less volume or even interest in these markets, a slow grind higher doesn't even look like it takes much effort or any meaningful resistance frankly.
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the system loses its sense then
previously markets appreciated because dividend increase
now S&P pays record low 1.7%. With record payouts and record margins there is just no room for dividend increase
there is no sense to invest long term for dividends as they get smaller and smaller
If noone invests longterm then probably someone buys short term. Right?
If someone buys short term they should take profit. Right?
As currently no shorts in the market, no sense to invest longterm and market consists only from short term speculators how long can it continue?
Why it should continue?
Insiders sell like crazy for a year and a half
No matter what government does sooner or later speculators will have to take profit and this time crash will be even bigger than previous as most of the growth at least since August was manipulative

any flaws in this logic?
 
yes, that is the question that reverberates through my head as well. Only a machine or a buyer not using real money would continue to buy at the top and not want to book gains after a 100% move. i believe that the fed is buying via its agents to prop up the markets and constantly squeeze the shorts. No natural buyer would have not allowed a dip first somewhere during this run.
 
Quote from kashirin:

the system loses its sense then
previously markets appreciated because dividend increase
now S&P pays record low 1.7%. With record payouts and record margins there is just no room for dividend increase
there is no sense to invest long term for dividends as they get smaller and smaller
If noone invests longterm then probably someone buys short term. Right?
If someone buys short term they should take profit. Right?
As currently no shorts in the market, no sense to invest longterm and market consists only from short term speculators how long can it continue?
Why it should continue?
Insiders sell like crazy for a year and a half
No matter what government does sooner or later speculators will have to take profit and this time crash will be even bigger than previous as most of the growth at least since August was manipulative

any flaws in this logic?
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To 1st: bailing out banks goes back far before1990s.

2nd: The last 20 years have had dividends far below historical norms, yet there were a good number of rising years within (biggest/ longest bull market in recent history occurred under this condition).

In my experience, none of these things 'has' to happen; markets don't necessarily follow simple logic, rather, they tend to do the opposite. There are always a handful of good explanations in hindsight.
 
Quote from kashirin:

the system loses its sense then
previously markets appreciated because dividend increase
now S&P pays record low 1.7%. With record payouts and record margins there is just no room for dividend increase
there is no sense to invest long term for dividends as they get smaller and smaller
If noone invests longterm then probably someone buys short term. Right?
If someone buys short term they should take profit. Right?
As currently no shorts in the market, no sense to invest longterm and market consists only from short term speculators how long can it continue?
Why it should continue?
Insiders sell like crazy for a year and a half
No matter what government does sooner or later speculators will have to take profit and this time crash will be even bigger than previous as most of the growth at least since August was manipulative

any flaws in this logic?
More...

I don't see any flaws in your logic, that pretty much mirrors my set of conclusions as well. We've seen record outflows for over a year (including ETF's), massive insider stock selling, very low volume on most days, etc, etc...

Tiv is right, the Fed colludes with its agents to put a perpetual bid underneath the market. But I'd still argue that this has been the case for alot longer than the past 2 years, it's been going on, to a much smaller degree for years. The difference being there were more natural buyers in the previous bull runs, along with more shorting in the hedge fund biz, etc, etc...in other words, there was a semblance of a market even if it was supported at various junctures...

This will end horrifically.
 
its not that complicated

strongest sectors that have moved this market are tech, oil, metals and mining

minor ones are agriculture, financials, retail

if you want some huge sell off then you need ALL of those to decline. However, that hasn't happened at all.

Remember '2010 articles talked about how the correlation coefficient for stocks to spiders is at all time highs and stats people were calling for a reversion to mean? Thats probably whats happening right now. The market isn't tanking and only slowly grinding up because sectors are not moving in unison to the downside.

Maybe it will happen, but theres good money to be made if you can figure out the movements in different sectors.
 
Quote from tivthetrader:

yes, that is the question that reverberates through my head as well. Only a machine or a buyer not using real money would continue to buy at the top and not want to book gains after a 100% move. i believe that the fed is buying via its agents to prop up the markets and constantly squeeze the shorts. No natural buyer would have not allowed a dip first somewhere during this run.
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I've explained this now on several threads. If someone is "propping" up this market, they are doing a horrible job. US markets are under performing big time vs other markets around the world. I think we are somewhere between 15th and 20th over the last 12 months. How do you explain that? Let me guess, the FED is buying index futures all over the world? Really? And they are buying up all the commodities? Really? And they are buying up all the stock? Really? Do you also believe the us gov't is hiding an alien body in Roswell, NM?

Here are the return numbers for the last 12 months:

Argentina 55%
Singapore 54%
Germany 37%
Australia 37%
Taiwan 36%
South Africa 36%
Peru 35%
Canada 35%
Chile 32%
Sweden 31%
Netherlands 29%

USA 28%


And year to date:

Spain 16%
Germany 12.5%
Italy 11.5%
Greece 11.0%
France 10.0%
Sweden 7.5%

USA 5%
 
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