Got my butt handed to me today on ES live

Coupla things ...

First, sorry for your rough day - we all have them now and then.

Second, how long have you studied/paper traded ES? IMHO you need to put in at least 6 months of solid, profitable trading on sim, and book profits of at least twice what you hope to make trading your real account in the same time period before you trade futures live. And of course it goes without saying, you need to do that using only an amount in your paper account equal to what you could comfortably and realistically risk in your real account. If you achieve that, really all that does is give you the confidence that you MIGHT be profitable trading live. Otherwise chances are slim, IMO.

I don't know what your system is, but given the importance of today's employment numbers, viewing today through the prism of those reports should have kept you on the right side of the trade for the most part, including the predictable (potential) lunchtime chop/countertrend that developed. Also we had some nice round numbers to work from, i.e. 80-ish for pre-market high, 75-ish right before the jobs #'s, 60-ish for the first pivot low, 55-ish (53.75) for the a.m. low, 50% retracement of globex for that swing high just after 1pm, and just about a 30-point range (globex) for the day - pretty standard on a big news day, based on recent volatility. It's not always exact, but then again, no one catches every move right to the tick.

Personally I think once you have a profitable system, the most important thing is to remain flexible, and learn to read whether movements are genuine or faking, so you can react appropriately as price unfolds.

Best of luck.
 
When looking at the day chart in a macro sense, it all looks like a fairly easy day in hindsight.

However, if you look at the range on the bars, or shorten down the CV number, or small ticks, you will see that there was either a lot of volatility or gaming by strong hands.

For instance, I'll run 3 CV charts (8k, 5k,3k), but generally make my decisions from 8k and filter.

I will enter on slight pull back. I'll have a stop set at 4 - 6 ticks generally. It often moved up 1-2 ticks, but then ran back to my stops before immediately proceeding in the favorable direction. And this was not over a matter of minutes, but seconds. To me, choppy is just not moving sideways, but also when you have huge range (long wick bars). Increasing stops only allowed the incorrect trades to extract more money for me.

I'm sure there are plenty wiser than me were able to make a killing on multiple trades. Just not sure if I should be discouraged based on this or maybe I bit off a bit more than I could chew.
 
Quote from WinSum:

If you describe what you are doing successfully in daytrading stocks, then maybe an ES trader can offer some critique on which part of your stock trading strategy you can carry over to trading ES and which part won't apply when it comes to trading ES.

For example, if you are a rebate trader on stocks, then that strategy won't be applicable to trading ES.
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I used to swing AT strategies that worked well during the bull. For discretionary, it is quite simple. I have about 5 stocks I play regularly, they are quite consistent in how they behave, which may be more to do with the lack of gaming compared to others. They trend long and hard on a near daily basis (whether up or down on anygiven day). When a see a HH/HL or two I jump on long, get off when it breaks up, and if I see LH/LL or two I jump on the short side.
 
Quote from mropp:

I will enter on slight pull back. I'll have a stop set at 4 - 6 ticks generally. It often moved up 1-2 ticks, but then ran back to my stops before immediately proceeding in the favorable direction. And this was not over a matter of minutes, but seconds.
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Dude, not clear on the size of your targets, but your stops are awfully tight for the ES. You may want consider revising your risk:reward profile to allow for stops that will helo you ride out the noise
 
Quote from mropp:

I used to swing AT strategies that worked well during the bull. For discretionary, it is quite simple. I have about 5 stocks I play regularly, they are quite consistent in how they behave, which may be more to do with the lack of gaming compared to others. They trend long and hard on a near daily basis (whether up or down on anygiven day). When a see a HH/HL or two I jump on long, get off when it breaks up, and if I see LH/LL or two I jump on the short side.
More...

That particular strategy will not be transferrable to trading ES. ES does a lot of backfilling. Looking just for HH/HL or LH/LL on ES will not prove to be as reliable as you were accustomed to with your 5 stocks.

ES is traded by some of the most skilled traders because it is so liquid. There is a fair amount of gamesmanship involved. They are not going broadcast to the world that they want to buy, so you can bid up the price and ride on their coattail. Competitive Gamesmanship is a new aspect that was not necessary for the 5 stocks but is necessary for ES.
 
I add could add one more suggestion. If you charting has playback mode great. Speed up to atleast 10 times and see how well you can make accurate trade plan set up decisions in a faster than normal speed. If you do well there then you should be able to handle "seeing" the market in normal speed. If you can't it's probably to do with the issue of your own trading psychology rather than methodology.
 
Thanks for suggestions... I'll try again Monday to see if it was just dynamics I had not experienced yet on Friday, or some mental block I was having (it was birthday the day before and perhaps I was mentally fatigued from a long night). If Monday gives me similar troubles I'll go back to the emini drawing boards and just play my equities.

I had been using NT sim on real time data for quite a while, and I was doing quite well with one contract (100 - 300+) a day with an occassional small loss sprinkled about once a week. I started modifying ATM strategies in NT and had better success with a 2 and 3 step (likewise 2 and 3 contracts per entry) with scaling out.

I do know I overtraded today, but the setups were there, at least as how I was able to do with PT, but they just didn't pan out. On a side note, I could have sold my trades a very profitable contrarian today. =)

I'm going to do replay over the weekend and adjust my R/R and see what happens.
 
Quote from tortoise:

Dude, not clear on the size of your targets, but your stops are awfully tight for the ES. You may want consider revising your risk:reward profile to allow for stops that will helo you ride out the noise
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You to make your stops variable based on condition (volatility, trend, etc.), not point size ... and they need to be at least 2pts if not more.

Anything less than that is justifiable going to be chopped up.

Good trading,

JJ
 
<i>"So was today just a tricky day on ES or did I just screw the pooch by chance,..."</i>

Good news is, you screwed the pooch. That means all hope is not lost! <grin>

ES like all indexes are trading in a sideways trend right now. One day is a gap-up & go, next day sells off, third day rallies in the afternoon, fourth day gap down & flat, etc.

Markets are held hostage by FOMC anticipation. Regardless of why, it's the what which matters.

*

Several weeks of insane volatility had traders hitting buy & sell signals twenty times per day, and most of them worked. That fostered the usual "current conditions = future projections" human belief.

Now, intraday price ranges and swings are back to historical norms. Not 6pt total range sessions when volatility was at decades' lows. Decades' lows means it lies outside the curve for more than ten years. Once abated, might be another ten years before ultra-low volatility returns.

Likewise, multiple swings of 10, 20 and 30+ point ranges intraday are outside the norm, too. Fun while it lasts, will be here again, but careers are not built on outlier conditions.

What we see right now is typical index action. Friday's session offered five - six price swings of +4pts ES or greater from entry signals to end of swing move. That's a lot of potential, but 20 - 30 entry points did not exist.

In my case, I picked off two +5pt swings in the morning, hit one for -2pts in the early afternoon and called it quits. There were other +4pt or greater moves in the late morning and past 2pm EST into the close, which I either watched unfold or was away from the screens enjoying free time.

Had I missed the first two trades for whatever reason, I'd have caught a couple others and shut down for essentially the same end results.

By far the biggest mistake I see emini traders making right now is over-trading. There are only four - six good swings per day, all day. That does not permit 20 - 40 trades turned with a positive outcome. If we know there are only a few potential profit moves per day AND we hit one or two, what's wrong with shutting down early?

As for how to trade the ES itself (and YM as well), waiting for key points of magnetism to be reached on a chart is the first step. Prior session highs and lows, gaps, various S/R levels via pivots or fibs are all visible points of relevance to the masses. Waiting for those values to be hit <b>and then</b> taking signals to buy or sell accordingly works best.

Emini trading is easy, once mastered. It's the mastery which takes forever and a year to accomplish. That includes price action AND mental = emotional management in harmony with one another. IMO, the chart mastery is relatively simple and easy. The personal, mental = emotional mastery is where ultimate long-term success or failure truly lies.
 
Austin

If you had a small account and wanted to take only the best setup on a 5 minute ES chart which one would you vote for? I am leaning toward the double top as I have found this to be an extremely reliable trade providing certain conditions are met. The main problem I have with this trade is when to exit.
 
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