Quote from Sparohok:
Bagging on the CFO is weak. The guy's just doing his job.
First, nobody here can question his facts. It is his job to know the state of Google's finances better than anyone else in the world. Even if he's doing a terrible job he knows a hell of a lot more than any of us.
Second, nobody here can question his motivation. Unless you've got more GOOG than he does, which is not bloody likely!
So the only thing you can question is his judgement, but with far less information than he has. If there is <i>no plausible scenario</i> in which he was doing the right thing for Google shareholders, then maybe he misjudged the markets.
I think there is a very plausible scenario in which he did just the right thing. He knows the analyst forecasts and he knows how Google is performing. He knows expectations are way too high, and will need to be adjusted downwards before the next earnings. Another big miss would be the kiss of death, all the analysts who reaffirmed last quarter are going to have egg on their face. He has to talk the market down slowly and gently and convince analysts to rachet down their estimates without spooking them. He can't put out his own forecasts, it's too late for that. So put yourself in his shoes, how are you going to get the message across? Seems like he pitched it just right. The market action after the initial selloff confirms that he didn't spook the institutions out of the stock.
I predict some more guardedly bearish talk on Thursday and another small correction.
Martin