Quote from profitfromprice:
This is a traders website so adding some info which you might like while trading stocks...I actually used it on GOOG yesterday so I am sharing it on this post
I like to get hold of two things before I make any trade:
(1) Sentiment and
(2) fundamentals.
By sentiment, I mean 'thoughts and expectations but not actions'. By fundamentals, I mean 'Actions' (I am not referring to P/E, EPS by fundamentals... but the actual demand and supply. I will come to this shortly.)
Now for any stock to go up, both of them have to be in sync ( positive). However if the expectations are positive but the actions are negative, it is a warning signal.
Now how do I measure these two things?
* I capture 'sentiments' mostly by watching Open price with respect to previous day's Close. Open price is the price at which the trading starts- to me, this means the Open price is reflecting collective "expectations" about the stock. Now yesterday, June 07, GOOG opened up in gap at 297 or so with respect to previous day's close of 292/93 level. This showed that the SENTIMENT about GOOG was very strong (positive). High aggregate expectations only result in a strong open. Now this may have caused by some news or anything, but for me, it is the strongness of Open price that matters.
After opening at 297, it almost touched 300. So actions (more buying then selling) were in sync with expectations. Then, the actions changed-- GOOG not only went below the STARTING EXPECTATIONS POINT OF 297 but came all the way to 290 or so. I was watching these negative ACTIONS (profit taking I mean). So just to take a safe trading chance, I put a limit order to short sell GOOG at 295.98 if it came back up in a pull back. My order was filled. My stoploss was at 300.10. Today I covered my short with a healthy more than 10$ per share profit...
I got to go now....but let me summarize,
* Strong SENTIMENT (Strong open price with respect to previous day's Close price) but WEAK ACTIONS (Close price lower than Open price)- when both of these happen together, I don't go out searching on message board or websites to figure out what is the news that is causing the prices to drop---I just take a chance. I subscribe to this view- despite currently high expectations about GOOG, some influential circles are shorting or booking profit.
This is one small example of my PROFIT FROM PRICES theory.
FYI: On the same logic, in response to heavy sell off seen in TXN yesterday, I have shorted TXN today at 27.99 today with a stoploss at 28.50!!
Let me know if you want to read more about how to read just prices...
Good luck.