Quote from ForexForex:
Hindsight is always 20/20. If GOOG traded to my target of $610 the payoff would have been 28x, the 570's payoff would be 20x. Plus the risk was only $35.00, instead of $200.00.
Wisdom is useful even in hindsight.
What were the odds of collecting 20-1 vs 28-1 given the wide diff in strikes?
I'd say 10-1, maybe even more, in favor of the lower strike. And in the long run a much better net payoff.
Get a new pair of glasses.