Goog

You are missing the point and leading a whole lot of people down the wrong path. You see once overconfidence gets burned it knocks most traders permanently out of the game - so be aware of what you are saying and the affect it has.

The point is that markets do correct and with it almost every stock. Only the best of previous leaders will re-emerge along with the new leaders - but the high-fliers will get cut in price and languish until the market is done sorting itself out.

So yes, you are right GOOG can be held through the hope as good as almost any stock. But in the interim it may take a 25-35% drubbing during a 3 to 4 month period.

it is foolish to think that you can outguess the market and that all the unfolding turmoil won't impact US stocks to the point of even recession. These things play themselves out no matter what GOOG and RIMM and AAPL and MA do.

Pay (some) Sense
 
Quote from paysense:

You are missing the point and leading a whole lot of people down the wrong path. You see once overconfidence gets burned it knocks most traders permanently out of the game - so be aware of what you are saying and the affect it has.

The point is that markets do correct and with it almost every stock. Only the best of previous leaders will re-emerge along with the new leaders - but the high-fliers will get cut in price and languish until the market is done sorting itself out.

So yes, you are right GOOG can be held through the hope as good as almost any stock. But in the interim it may take a 25-35% drubbing during a 3 to 4 month period.

it is foolish to think that you can outguess the market and that all the unfolding turmoil won't impact US stocks to the point of even recession. These things play themselves out no matter what GOOG and RIMM and AAPL and MA do.

Pay (some) Sense
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You raise some good points, but but I don't see any 'unforlding turmoil' or a recession. If there is a major economic downturn my stocks (a long with 95% of other stocks) will reverse. But there is more money to be made taking a risk and going long now than waiting out for something that may never come.
 
You are using the same logic as paysense, except you refuse to see the other side of your arguement. We have been going up for close to 5 years, that is about the average length of an uptrend. Profits have peaked, there is no way to ignore that. The consumer does not have the refi atm to hit anymore, savings are negative, and the average joe is leveraged to the hilt. If the mkt had been going down for 5 years, there would be blood in the street, thats when you buy. Why is the fed cutting rates? Because they are trying to keep the market at alltime highs? Doubt it. There are problems in the system stock, but you refuse to see the forrest, you just look at your trees (momo stocks). Good luck.
 
Quote from frank grimes:

Profits have peaked, there is no way to ignore that. The consumer does not have the refi atm to hit anymore, savings are negative, and the average joe is leveraged to the hilt. If the mkt had been going down for 5 years, there would be blood in the street, thats when you buy. Why is the fed cutting rates? Because they are trying to keep the market at alltime highs? Doubt it. There are problems in the system stock, but you refuse to see the forrest, you just look at your trees (momo stocks). Good luck.
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For some sectors profit has peaked but for other sectors such as energy, tech, materials, and constuction profits have far from peaked. Those sectors and stocks will continue to outperform, even in a flat market.

As for the consumer, there is still NO evidence that the consumer is tapped out. The consumer still has plenty of reserves, tons of credit and spending.
 
Quote from stock_trad3r:

For some sectors profit has peaked but for other sectors such as energy, tech, materials, and constuction profits have far from peaked. Those sectors and stocks will continue to outperform, even in a flat market.

As for the consumer, there is still NO evidence that the consumer is tapped out. The consumer still has plenty of reserves, tons of credit and spending.
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The consumer has plenty of reserves???

:p


Are you serious, debt is growing faster than ever before. Understand that there is hundreds of billions of dollars of credit card debt, this will be the next economical problem most likely over the next 1-2 years. The economy is slowing, consumer spending is slowing. Those big piggy banks arent providing for the economy like they used to.
 
stktrader if you missed my post from early november here it is again....


S2007S


Registered: Aug 2006
Posts: 4946


11-02-07 04:42 PM

I know many dont want to agree with this or even bother to acknowlege it, but the truth is credit card debt is at record highs. This is going to be as big or even bigger than the subprime meltdown. There is a record $915 Billion worth of credit card debt here in the US. Many will continue to ignore it until it gets to the point where it can no longer be ignored.

Just like other asset backed securities, credit card debt is sold off as packages of securities.....now the question is what happens when there is a rise in delinquencies????

The banks feel it along with the securities backed by the credit card receivables. As consumers default on their payments this would lead to bank losses and portfolio losses in the institutions, pensions and those big hedge funds.

This is the next major economic problem that should be mentioned but is being completely ignored. Those 1500 SQ foot Piggy banks arent providing for the economy anymore, so what else better to use then the worthless dollar, plastic..............
 
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