GOOG worth $30/share? (per Hussman)

Hey some people can't get it. They sat there bearishly watching many of the greatest opportunities pass them by. Sure google may disapoint in a year or two, but currently there the hottest company out there.
 
Quote from Thousand:

At this time, the market says google is worth $416. The market is always right, no matter how irrational the price is.
More...

Then why trade? Anything? Ever?

Martin
 
Quote from Maverick1:

Hussman is displaying a classic judgemental bias called representative bias when he says "Having made similar comments regarding the value of Cisco, Sun, EMC and Oracle near the peak of the tech bubble, with value estimates (which turned out to be slightly optimistic) at small fractions of their going prices, I'm pretty comfortable with that figure."

I am surprised that an investor of his stature would make that mistake, but I have to remind myself that I am indeed 100% cynical when it comes to the forecasting prowess of gurus.

What also gave me a good laugh was the following comment: " and no high-cost obstacle to entry aside from smart statistical and computing algorithms.". Um, excuse me? aside from smart statistical algorithms? How about throwing out the baby with the bath water while you're at it? LOL.

The reason why GOOG has done so well in growing earnings is precisely because its algorithms lead to superior monetization, relative to YHOO. Secondly, Hussman is grossly underestimating GOOG's expansion abroad and the upside from margin expansion there, as well as GOOG's potential impact on the media sector.

Hussman should stick to his broken toys like the Fed model. I do enjoy reading his big picture comments though :)
More...

Reread this post Sparohok, its dated from 10/27, GOOG was at $353 then, $418 today.

Thats why people trade, because they have a divergent view on what market is pricing in. The market was 'right' on 10/27 in repricing GOOG upwards to fair value, and this process continues still, although we are rapidly approaching upper bounds of fundamental models based on current information.
 
I agree, and a pessimist will always be one. It is like a perrenial bear, no matter how well the economy is doing he will find a reason to be bearish. The way to make money is to see it from both sides, where as some people can only see it one way.
 
Quote from Maverick1:

Reread this post Sparohok, its dated from 10/27, GOOG was at $353 then, $418 today.
More...
Thanks for the update. Very relevant, I'm glad you answered my question. :)

Martin
 
Quote from jebara:

It is like a perrenial bear, no matter how well the economy is doing he will find a reason to be bearish.
More...
In 1992 the LA Times called Hussman "one lonely, raging bull."

His fund has outperformed the S&P by 18 percentage points a year since its inception in 2000.

Whatever you think of his GOOG call, he has earned his bona fides, and not just by predicting imminent doom.

Martin
 
Quote from jebara:

I agree, and a pessimist will always be one. It is like a perrenial bear, no matter how well the economy is doing he will find a reason to be bearish. The way to make money is to see it from both sides, where as some people can only see it one way.
More...


This argument is rarely used properly. Whenever someone makes a downward turn-around, a few people always jump in and call them bears and that they should go with the market and not miss opportunities. I have no reason to believe that anyone here (on this thread) is a bear and bear alone. I am trying to predict googles downfall because I think it will happen and I want to be there for it. But I have also been gaining from the otherside.




RT
 
I agree with you, but some of the bear arguments border on ludicrous. At hussman's 30 dollar target then it would be worth 8.8 billion.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top