GOOG suckers

krazykarl · Feb 26, 2008

Quote from retire45:

Shorts always loudest before a bounce.. 750 down to 450 bounce area.. The short money has been made.. Could go down further BUT greedy shorts could get what they deserve.. Once again.. no position.. I have traded stocks like this.. DRYS for example.. from 130 to the 40's and shorts want to see 20's.. yet support at 40's clear as day.. If I were an avid GOOG trader, I'd be fishing now. For a swing trader, no trade in GOOG now..

I'm short google and I was loudest before they reported earrings.(see first post in thread.) I've also laid out my rationale throughout the thread for this move and will reiterate: there is a fundamental change in the stock. It will likely bounce but the volume to the downside has been so much larger then the moves up the bounce duration will become smaller and smaller.

Regards,

musclemoney · Feb 26, 2008

Quote from jnaylor07:

i agree this stock is going down short-term (6-9 months), whether it be to $400 or $370. Will any of you GOOG bears out there change your position when it comes down this low, or do you think this is just the beginning of a precipitous decline?

Been dollaring down. If it hits $400, I'll buy even more. This is a long term stock for me.

KINGOFSHORTS · Feb 27, 2008

Bird in hand worth two in the bush. GOOG has been a superb short but I am gonna take that bird in the hand and play it safe.

That upcoming fed cut is gonna pop things a bit.

volcanik · Feb 28, 2008

GOOG was a great short for me especially the $30 slide in one day this past week when they reported the fewer ad clicks news..sold it then for some profit on the puts.

After this drop it was bound to gap up so I made some money on the calls in that short gap up.

currently no positions, just seeing where it goes. Dell just missed estimates..this may take Nasdaq down tommorow

Staying on the sidelines for today.

volcanik · Feb 29, 2008

GOOG has solid support at $473 through this entire 50 pt Nasdaq decline today. Im bullish on this ..a green market day and it should move up.

Div_Arb · Feb 29, 2008

It's moving up based on some stupid rumor. Fundamentals are deteriorating for GOOG, and there is no reason why it should have a market cap over $100bil. If you can make a trade out of it, though, then party on and do a bong rip for me.

Quote from volcanik:

GOOG has solid support at $473 through this entire 50 pt Nasdaq decline today. Im bullish on this ..a green market day and it should move up.

krazykarl · Feb 29, 2008

Quote from volcanik:

GOOG has solid support at $473 through this entire 50 pt Nasdaq decline today. Im bullish on this ..a green market day and it should move up.

Why? More often than not over the past 2 weeks up-days were losers for GOOG.

volcanik · Mar 1, 2008

Quote from krazykarl:

Why? More often than not over the past 2 weeks up-days were losers for GOOG.

true, that was before the ad click news came out. But two things make me more bullish on this stock:

1. Dell missed its earnings. This took down the Nasdaq bigtime yesterday..and in the past few weeks, a huge drop like that would have taken down Goog at least 5-10 bucks in a day. It didnt happen.

2. comScore revealed that Googs fewer ad click data does not directly result in loss of revenue. They just have reduced clicks now because they fine tuned the relevance of their searches. This caused analysts to re-iterate their price targets. The lowers price target Ive seen is $575 I think.

This would lead me to beleive Goog can get up to at least $500 (15 bucks more than it is now) with the caveat that there is no severing bad news next week. ( I know, its a long shot).

Currently Im holding Goog call options with a close STOP obviously. in case it goes the other way.

I only look at short term and only play with options, not holding for more than 1-2 days.

volcanik · Mar 1, 2008

shit, I just re-read my post above, and I sound like a CNBC assmunch. Sorry to come off that way, I hate that channel

11Blade · Mar 1, 2008

Quote from krazykarl:

Besides trust in my program - this is a trade of conviction. I happen to have a Math/CS degree and from a knowledge standpoint, google has shown me nothing special. I guess it took the talking heads a few years to catch on to what people that write algorithms and software already knew.

Regards,

I have to give you credit for your conviction. At least you took a stand on your viewpoint and it happened to be spot on in the short term.

I disagree somewhat with your assessment of google as being just an "advertising" company and I suspect that in an incremental fashion, Google will innovate and continue to deliver. I however think like all publicly traded companies they will succumb to the issues of scalability of growth thus lowering the premium people are willing to pay.

Good luck!

Go big! or go home!