GOOG suckers

Quote from mbesto:

back on subject...

why was GOOG ever at 700+ anyway? overvalued is an understatement IMO...

can anyone really answer this question with some certainty....how is the company planning on growing?
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long-term pump-and-dump?


I think emotions have a lot to do with it. Facts and data always win out in the end, but in the meantime, the talking heads saying how great on-line advertising is coupled with things like gmail, etc. fuled the fire.

The fact is GMail is junky from an application standpoint. It's trendy, sure, but so are $500 jeans. Would a construction worker ever go to work with $500 jeans? Someone who build roads, buildings, things of use? No, of course not. Couple all of this with how _bad_ adwords is - business have been questioning it's value and the legitimacy of it's "clicks" for years - and you have people growing tired.

Just like the jeans, google is last-year's fad. Time for a new style.



Regards,
 
Quote from krazykarl:

100% of one of the IB accounts. (~50k starting equity.)

The system, however, writes calls and buys puts, so the risk is much higher then 50k, but it's managed risk.



Kind Regards,
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???? Thats nuts.
 
Exactly...emotion. My question was more hypothetical than anything.

My second question is serious however...if facts and data always win in the end, where are the facts to say that they can grow? I don't see a single product in google's arsenal that is going to increase revenue. Someone please correct me.

gl on your short...long term (2+ yrs) you think it will drop down below 200? me thinks so
 
Quote from mbesto:

Exactly...emotion. My question was more hypothetical than anything.

My second question is serious however...if facts and data always win in the end, where are the facts to say that they can grow? I don't see a single product in google's arsenal that is going to increase revenue. Someone please correct me.

gl on your short...long term (2+ yrs) you think it will drop down below 200? me thinks so
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I don't know about 200 - but I do think it will hit 370 this year.

100% agree on the revenue issue. They have one stream of significant cash-flow: ads.
 
GOOG is a $10 billion company, not a $100 billion+ company. You can do the math and figure out your own price target (hint: divide by 10). Earnings momentum is slowing, and I would project that EPS could be in the $2.00 range if we experience an economic slowdown and a new presidential administration that just destroys the economy.

I would project GOOG to trade in the $50 range in 2010. I know it sounds unbelievable, but give it some time. Look what happened to YHOO, AMZN, etc..
 
you made the right call but for the wrong reason. in other words you were lucky. you had a 50/50 chance of being right.

goog went down not because they were overvalued but because they missed earnings. there's no way your trading program could have predicted earnings.

i would not trust any program to make a trade the day before earnings. that's pure gambling.
 
Quote from blackjack007:

you made the right call but for the wrong reason. in other words you were lucky. you had a 50/50 chance of being right.

goog went down not because they were overvalued but because they missed earnings. there's no way your trading program could have predicted earnings.

i would not trust any program to make a trade the day before earnings. that's pure gambling.
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That's incorrect. The reason I left a human element in the software is that the tape over the past few weeks caused me to let the software go on it.

It was closer to 95/5. Read my posts days before they released earnings: I did not waffle once and have explained my rational for discussion.



Regards,
 
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