GOOG next report

Quote from IV_Trader:

maybe its not cheap but very close to free rent
Are we looking at the same GOOG? Mine is realising 12 vol, which is consistent with it's beta to Qs and Jan-31 1117.5 strike implied has a 23 handle...
 
Quote from sle:

Are we looking at the same GOOG? Mine is realising 12 vol, which is consistent with it's beta to Qs and Jan-31 1117.5 strike implied has a 23 handle...

ATM is at 5.5%...I adjusted the expected reporting vola due to the last Q move.

Can't see straddle goes much below 5% on the day of report.
 
Quote from IV_Trader:

ATM is at 5.5%...I adjusted the expected reporting vola due to the last Q move.

Can't see straddle goes much below 5% on the day of report.
I don't know if you are delta-hedging, but the general problem with that reasoning is that path dependency can and probably will lose you money on the whole trade - i.e. ATM straddle will be worth 6%, but it's going to be a different strike. Meanwhile you going to lock-in low vol through the life of the straddle you buy today (unless you are buying a strip of some sort).
 
Quote from sle:

I don't know if you are delta-hedging, but the general problem with that reasoning is that path dependency can and probably will lose you money on the whole trade - i.e. ATM straddle will be worth 6%, but it's going to be a different strike. Meanwhile you going to lock-in low vol through the life of the straddle you buy today (unless you are buying a strip of some sort).

I am actively delta-hedging/scalping via shares.
 
Quote from IV_Trader:

closing before report.
Might work. Personally, I'd just by Feb then so you'd have some residual vega even if you drift away from the strike...
 
I have a bunch of ICs on this thing (short g/v) in Jan17s. 7/2 risk in the 1065/75/1155/65 strikes. I may short some shares against it here at ~1117 even though I am neutral to 1105.

Edit: I am content to be short to 05.
 
Oh shit. I took a flyer short the Jan24 as the vola was 50/50 for the report missing that date. I hope that nobody is too concentrated long the 24th.
 
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