GOOG Iron Condor

viruscore1

viruscore1

IMHO GOOG will not swing 20% either way with in the next 3 months. My limit price is about 2.8, here's my trade.
2017115IronCondor28.jpg

The percentages look good at 3% chance it'll close below my short put strike and 5% to close above my short call strike. I will not hold trade until expiry feb 16/18.
2017115IronCondor28Analyzer.jpg
 
Picking up a 6% gain with an 8% chance of blowout is not something I'd be willing to do. Especially with an intervening earnings date, and when such price moves have precedent during the last 3 years (never mind if it falls to the tide of a market-wide crash).
 
beerntrading said:
Picking up a 6% gain with an 8% chance of blowout is not something I'd be willing to do. Especially with an intervening earnings date, and when such price moves have precedent during the last 3 years (never mind if it falls to the tide of a market-wide crash).
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So you think goog will close 20% in 2 months of current price. What is your trade then...
 
beerntrading said:
Picking up a 6% gain with an 8% chance of blowout is not something I'd be willing to do. Especially with an intervening earnings date, and when such price moves have precedent during the last 3 years (never mind if it falls to the tide of a market-wide crash).
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Take another look at the analyzer percentage. It's 8% the trade will go against me, and 92% it will close between in my favor.
 
I'm personally bullish on GOOG (and the market generally), but not in it in any capacity. But this trade repeated 100 times, you'd have 8 losers, likely $25k each, so $200k total. You'd have 92 winners at $850 each. So $78k upside with a massive downside.

Never mind that if you had done the trade in each 2 month period for the last 3 years, you'd have had 2 blowouts in the 18 trades. (didn't formally back test this--just my estimate from the charts)
 
beerntrading said:
I'm personally bullish on GOOG (and the market generally), but not in it in any capacity. But this trade repeated 100 times, you'd have 8 losers, likely $25k each, so $200k total. You'd have 92 winners at $850 each. So $78k upside with a massive downside.

Never mind that if you had done the trade in each 2 month period for the last 3 years, you'd have had 2 blowouts in the 18 trades. (didn't formally back test this--just my estimate from the charts)
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I guess your are not familiar with iron condor trades, let alone mitigation. Not to many option traders hold until option expiry. Identify any 2 month period in the last 2 years goog swings 20% in 1 direction...
 
Generally speaking, risk reward and probability of success have inverse relationship.

High probability of success = bad risk reward and vice versa. You cannot have both.

Personally I prefer somewhere in 70-80% probability range trades. Their risk reward is not that terrible (usually around 1:4), winners are decent, and one really bad trade would not wipe out months of gains.
 
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Kim Klaiman said:
Generally speaking, risk reward and probability of success have inverse relationship.

High probability of success = bad risk reward and vice versa. You cannot have both.

Personally I prefer somewhere in 70-80% probability trades. Their risk reward is not that terrible (usually around 1:4), winners are decent, and one really bad trade would not wipe out months of gains.
More...
lol
 
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