GOOG Earnings this Thursday - 570/580/590 Butterfly only $1.20

[cdcaveman]

Quote from diaoptions:

OK .... This is my final butterfly position.



580/595/610 Butterfly $1.70

• GOOG @ 595.82
• Buy 1 GOOG Jul 2012 580.00 call @ $24.90 http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GOOG120721C00580000
• Sell 2 GOOG Jul 2012 595.00 calls @ $16.20 x 2 = $32.40 http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GOOG120721C00595000
• Buy 1 GOOG Jul 2012 610.00 call @ $9.20 http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GOOG120721C00610000
• Total Debit $1.70.
• Maximum loss $170.00, maximum gain $1330.00 if GOOG closes at $595 on Friday.

so no consideration for Goog blowing out earnings? would you never add a backspread to a butterfly?

 

[cdcaveman]

Quote from cdcaveman:

so no consideration for Goog blowing out earnings? would you never add a backspread to a butterfly?

my impression is that Goog moves on earnings.. my intuition tells me that its not going to be a "non event" i haven't traded the earnings in a while..

 

[FreakofNature]

Elite Gamblers!

 

[cdcaveman]

thanks for your imput.. your so much help.. haha i'm over here playing internet poker , spinning my own roulette wheel, betting on goog earnings, and sweating through my hands.. haha

 

[ammo]

i would say the earnings will be bad ..or at the very least i wouldn't bet to the longside . http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html

 

[FreakofNature]

Any professional would tell you earnings play are pure gambles but if you think otherwise you are entitled to your opinion just like am.

 

[FreakofNature]

Quote from ammo:

i would say the earnings will be bad ..or at the very least i wouldn't bet to the longside . http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html

On the other hand when do you EVER bet on the longside ammo.

You been bearish for half a decade.

 

[newwurldmn]

Quote from cdcaveman:

YEAH.. i'm with you.. i was trying to see with a down vol senerio but not much of a move what my liability would be on the short strike of the call ratio i was talking about.. i'm just finally getting this hoadley thing working..

Roughly your breakeven on the call is 3% bevcause the breakeven on the aug straddle should be around 6% +/- adjustments for out of the moneyness and skew effects.

I doubt you will make money between +3% and +6%. over 6% and you are a rock star. <+3% I think you also don't make money because you have a short call that will be worth something (even if it's .05)

 

[newwurldmn]

Quote from FreakofNature:

Any professional would tell you earnings play are pure gambles but if you think otherwise you are entitled to your opinion just like am.

Yeah. Pretty much rolling dice here.

 

[cdcaveman]

Quote from cdcaveman:

so no consideration for Goog blowing out earnings? would you never add a backspread to a butterfly?

i'm going to try your butterfly.. i bought it for 45 bucks