GOOG Earnings this Thursday - 570/580/590 Butterfly only $1.20

I still think its all a lie
Short the lie as it becomes realized

Buy what a syndicate gets involved in...

There's only value in growing misperceptions
 
Quote from cdcaveman:
the straddle is priced at 33 bucks.. Anyone Calender spreading, ratio backspreading? implied 33 dollar move doesn't seem that much to me.. i've seen goog move 100 bucks at earnings..
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Quote from cdcaveman:
look like the straddle that you would have sold at the close for 34 dollars or so will be worth four bucks or so on the open
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GOOG earnings are not until Thursday after the market closes. I will also post the strikes for the butterfly sometime on Thursday, around 3:30pm EST.

:)
 
thats a big pre earnings run up 570 to 600 .. you know i think i'm just going to buy an out of the money call option.. for an upside blow out.. best risk reward..

but what about this..

Buy 3 contracts of GOOG 2012 JUL 685.00 CALL @ $0.25 $75.00

Sell 1 contract of GOOG 2012 AUG 685.00 CALL @ $0.75 ($75.00)

or

Sell 1 contract of GOOG 2012 AUG 650.00 CALL @ $3.60 ($360.00)
Buy 3 contracts of GOOG 2012 JUL 650.00 CALL @ $1.15 $345.00

theres going to be such a vol implosion even on the Aug that if it doesn't go up that much or misses the whole spread will be worth practically nothing..
 
I bought straddles this morning. I think that we might see an outsized move given their exposure to foreign markets and the lack of visibility into those markets.

And now with this departure, there might be a larger catalyst for vol.

5.8%ish... Hoping to make 1-2% notional.
 
Quote from newwurldmn:

I bought straddles this morning. I think that we might see an outsized move given their exposure to foreign markets and the lack of visibility into those markets.

And now with this departure, there might be a larger catalyst for vol.

5.8%ish... Hoping to make 1-2% notional.
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well that puts it in the early 630's i'm modeling my ratio calender in excel as we speak if i can freaking get this to work! i wanna properly adjust the vol in the back month and measure the profit graph if there isn't a good blow out to the upside..
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

well that puts it in the early 630's i'm modeling my ratio calender in excel as we speak if i can freaking get this to work! i wanna properly adjust the vol in the back month and measure the profit graph if there isn't a good blow out to the upside..
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Yeah. 633 I think is my breakeven.

I think your spread is toxic. YOu will lose money if it's < 630 because your long calls have a high hurdle and your Aug calls will definately be worth something (probably more). If the move is massive to the upside you'll do really well. Otherwise hope for a down 5%.
 
interesting play, maximum loss 120, gain 1000.

like this strategy, but it needs lots of margin.

if moves like MLNX, that will be good.

EDU/VVUS/WHX are good moves, did not ride edu, rode whx with 12.5 put OTM, very profitable. today rode some 26 vvus put otm, very good too. whx is an exception, I saw 10under, ride to 9.3, that is my target, out there.

still kept some vvus 26put, i think tommroww maybe vvus will be 20 under.

earning play is hard. you can use QQQ to play goog, will be better.
 
Quote from newwurldmn:

Yeah. 633 I think is my breakeven.

I think your spread is toxic. YOu will lose money if it's < 630 because your long calls have a high hurdle and your Aug calls will definately be worth something (probably more). If the move is massive to the upside you'll do really well. Otherwise hope for a down 5%.
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YEAH.. i'm with you.. i was trying to see with a down vol senerio but not much of a move what my liability would be on the short strike of the call ratio i was talking about.. i'm just finally getting this hoadley thing working..
 
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