http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=92150&perpage=6&pagenumber=3
No mention of DoubleClick publishers huh? Everyone talks about âvalue to the advertiser!â - but if NYTimes, AOL, Fox Interactive pull out of their Dart (doubleclick)`deals, guess what? DoubleClick just became worth much less. Why would they pull out? Why wouldnât they is the question - Google is shaping up to be probably the most serious threat to the online advertising ecosystem that exists, from agencies to clients, and I wouldnât want Google having a soup to nuts window into my advertising revenue stream, from performance based key word stuff to display? Google as the ulitmate gatekeeper for ad dollars? Nope, no thanks.
I think this one has blowback written on it. they have strong earnings and the stock may lift mext week, but goog's glory days are behind it.
To me the most telling part of the deal is that Doubleclickâs investors refused google stock and demanded cash!
This suggests that those âin the knowâ at Doubleclick believe either that the deal will not reflect favorably on googleâs share price, or more likely that googleâs share price does not reflect reality. the supply/demand for goog shares is shifting.
(glad yhoo didn't buy, they must know something......the chief sales officer at yhoo, wenda millard, is a former co-founder doubleclick)
Consider how easily Google could have, say, offered $4B for the company and payed only a fraction in cash. Odds are this deal was offered and refused by Doubleclick.
$3B in cash and $0 in stock is the COMPROMISE that the two sides came to on the matter.
Publishers using doubleclick's DFP are key to Doubleclickâs value. Right now, thereâs a decent amount of chat about this on a listserv with the 100 or so top ad ops managers in the country. Many online publishers see Google as a competitor. Now, that competitor owns their ad server. Thereâs enough good competition in the ad server market to make switching a relatively easy option.
Perhaps Microsoft and Yahoo! tag teamed to make Google burn its war chest knowing that Google is desperate to diversify its revenue as Microsoft and Yahoo!âs Search technology is quickly coming up to parity and will drastically cut down on Googleâs margins going forward.
So i think Yahoo bid up YouTube knowing Google is desperate for the money losing sinkhole and Microsoft bid up DCLK.
if goog issues more shares to pay for the doubleclick acquisition, it would spell the beginning of the end for goog's lofty pps.
the real money made here is the PE firm.
disclosure: long yhoo. see my previous posts regarding yhoo in other threads.