Good time for strong short?

L

Larry3333

It seems that now its not bad time to open some shorts, bulls seems goes very hight and Aprill usually the cruelest month of a year even in good times...
 
Both the long term charts and fundamentals make it "seem" like the market should start heading down soon.

However if you don't know how and where to distinguish price areas which have very high chances of enormous selling pressure then you would simply be gambling.
 
Quote from Larry3333:

It seems that now its not bad time to open some shorts, bulls seems goes very hight and Aprill usually the cruelest month of a year even in good times...
More...
April is the cruellest month, breeding
Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing
Memory and desire, stirring
Dull roots with spring rain.
Winter kept us warm, covering
Earth in forgetful snow, feeding
A little life with dried tubers.


Obviously T.S. Eliot was a trader.
 
Actually, I've been thinking this April/May is setting up like last April/May. There was optimism that the Bush tax cut, financial back stop and Fed actions might lead us back up and the market rallied on bad news during earnings.

That said, I took a small position in the SRS Friday afternoon, considering a little FAZ while staying net long and continuing to fade. It's very possible we could see more of a melt up caused by short sellers having to cover. I've heard talk that there's some big hedge funds/trading desks looking to make the shorts scream in pain! Whether they'll be supported by the long only institutional money is another story ... :eek:
 
you mentioned that you took a small
position on SRS,
now are you short or long on this ?
I am being told it moves in opposite direction of IYR , where can I get more info on SRS thank you
 
Quote from Rayshafie:

you mentioned that you took a small
position on SRS,
now are you short or long on this ?
I am being told it moves in opposite direction of IYR , where can I get more info on SRS thank you
More...

I am long SRS which makes me short REITS. The leveraged ETFs are primarily day trading vehicles. As such, typical technical analysis doesn't work with them so I look at the index ETFs such as IYR instead to determine overbought/oversold conditions.

http://www.proshares.com/funds/srs.html
 
NERVESASTEEL, you have a target for SRS?

I managed to get my average down to 46 (started buying at 120:D ) and it has been really anoying chasing this dog's tale.

Anyway, nice breakdown to the downside and I should be in the green.

:)
 
Quote from NERVESASTEEL:

As stated earlier, I use the IYR for determining my entry/exit points for the SRS. My RSI indicatior for the IYR swung into very 'overbought' Friday afternoon and hit the top of my short term bullish channel. I anticipate a pullback of the IYR to at least 24/25. But technically speaking, the IYR shows all the signs of possible break out here. I do not believe the fundamentals support this move, but still, who really knows how far this thing could run ...:cool:
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Debaser you'll have to show me that trick something.You start buying at $120 and your avg is $46 which was the low on the stock till Friday? That means you shorted no more on srs in the long journey down from $120 to $38 AND YOU SHORTED AT A 15-1 CLIP NEAR FRIDAYS EXACT LOW. example you short 100 shares at $120 and 1400 shares at $40. That would put your avg at $46 or so. AGAIN CONGRADS ON YOUR INCREDIBLE SCALING.
 
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