Good poker player = good trader?
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Also, there are many players trying to make extra money at low limit online tables. In live play, this is just about impossible.
Consider 3/6 limit holdem. An expert player could make maybe 6-12 per hour in a live game. He'd almost be better off working in a fast food joint. Anyone trying to make money at the game live would certainly play higher limits.
But in an online 3/6 game, you get at least twice as many hands per hour per table, and you can play multiple tables at once. I've played as many as 6 tables at a time, and I know players who play more. But lets say 4 tables. That gives you the equivalent of 8 hours of live play in one hour. The players are a little tougher, but rake is lower and there is no tipping. It would not be unreasonable to make $30-50 per hour this way, without ever leaving the house.
Most skilled players will just be using the lower limits like 3/6 as a stepping stone to higher games, but there are always enough decent players to make it harder than a live game.
Consider 3/6 limit holdem. An expert player could make maybe 6-12 per hour in a live game. He'd almost be better off working in a fast food joint. Anyone trying to make money at the game live would certainly play higher limits.
But in an online 3/6 game, you get at least twice as many hands per hour per table, and you can play multiple tables at once. I've played as many as 6 tables at a time, and I know players who play more. But lets say 4 tables. That gives you the equivalent of 8 hours of live play in one hour. The players are a little tougher, but rake is lower and there is no tipping. It would not be unreasonable to make $30-50 per hour this way, without ever leaving the house.
Most skilled players will just be using the lower limits like 3/6 as a stepping stone to higher games, but there are always enough decent players to make it harder than a live game.
My WSOP ride ended this afternoon on day 4. I finished 360 something good for $35k. Though my initial goal was to get past the first day, I am still disappointed. It is not so much that I thought I would go far or wanted to move a couple of payouts, it just sux realizing that you are no longer in the game.
My bust out hand:
Everyone started the day at a new table. I was on the shortstack with 70k (average 200k), and there were 2 monster 400k+ stacks to the right of me. Anyway I was able to get a few chips, then double up through bigstack1 when he raised my blind and I pushed allin with KK vs AQ. Bigstack1 then lost another pot bringing him down to under 300k. A few hands later it gets folded around to bigstack1 who rasies to 15k (blinds are 2-4k) who is one off the button. I am in the small blind with JJ. I just call, thinking that he is somewhat on tilt, I plan to check/raise a low flop.
The flop comes 6-8-9 rainbow, I check, he bets 25k, I reraise to 75k, he thinks a min, then pushes allin. At that point I am somewhat committed, and believe my read to be accurate. I call, he makes a face and turns over 6-7 for low pair/str8 draw. Needless to say he hits his 10 on the turn; game over.
My bust out hand:
Everyone started the day at a new table. I was on the shortstack with 70k (average 200k), and there were 2 monster 400k+ stacks to the right of me. Anyway I was able to get a few chips, then double up through bigstack1 when he raised my blind and I pushed allin with KK vs AQ. Bigstack1 then lost another pot bringing him down to under 300k. A few hands later it gets folded around to bigstack1 who rasies to 15k (blinds are 2-4k) who is one off the button. I am in the small blind with JJ. I just call, thinking that he is somewhat on tilt, I plan to check/raise a low flop.
The flop comes 6-8-9 rainbow, I check, he bets 25k, I reraise to 75k, he thinks a min, then pushes allin. At that point I am somewhat committed, and believe my read to be accurate. I call, he makes a face and turns over 6-7 for low pair/str8 draw. Needless to say he hits his 10 on the turn; game over.
Very simple, say you have a setup that works 80% of the time, i.e. e.g. 80% of the time will get you 10 ticks in the ER2. Well, even though the outcome of each individual trade is random in the long run 80% will be winners and 20% lossers, assuming of course that the markets don't chance to render the setup obsolete. So basically when you see this setup you can assigne to it an 80% probability of working out...
B
B
That's a good result. Congrats.
twodimes.net has you as the favourite, so you got all your money in as a fav, at least (I made a couple of assumptions about suit but your actual results are probably close). The guy made a very aggressive re-raise all in. Unless you had a maniac table image, your turn raise tells him he is probably beat. He probably didn't know that he was a dog to an overpair.
However, a nice re-raise is probably called for preflop. This hand shows why. I do understand your flat call of the raise, though. Hindsight is 20/20, isn't it?
http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=6s+8c+9d&d=&h=Jd+Jc 6c+7h
It is simply amazing to me how many guys are good friends with Daniel. He must be one very friendly guy!
Of course you are absolutely right, Joab. The fact that there are a small group of players who consistently finish at the top of the tourneys and a somewhat different small group of players who are at the top of the American cash game circuit means very little. It is most likely that this is just a huge, ongoing black swan event, a fat tail fluke.
Phil Ivey, Dave Ulliot, Dan Harrington, Stu Ungar, Doyle Brunson, Phil Hellmuth, Barry Greenstein and Johnnie Chan and are prime examples of lucky s.o.b's who just happen to win all the time.
Poker is gambling, pure and simple. Anyone who thinks that an individual can have an edge is deluded. Anyone who thinks that it's mostly a skill game is obviously a nutbag.
Actually... he really is. I met him on the 'stars WPT Caribbean cruise (Jan '04, I think). I told him how awesome this article was, and how I'd always use it to blast the 'table coaches'.
He seemed like the exact opposite of the 'snobbish celebrity' type. Very friendly, no airs of superiority at all. Jesus (Ferguson, not Christ) was like that too.
BTW, did Dustin (Neverwin) Woolf's name ever get big?
Nice article. It always amazes me when guys berate the very player you need at a table, the guy who is willing to make bad calls.
Here in Toronto, there are a lot of guys who claim to know Negreanu. One guy who runs a cash game I go to seems to actually be telling the truth - some of the others at the table were there when Daniel stopped by this game last year sometime. They said he was very cool and sat down to play with them for about an hour and they all said it was the most fun they had had at a poker table.
Oh yeah... he left up
Anyway, this guy is down at the World Series right now... hope you're doing well, C.
I challenge this belief !!!
I think that the "celebrity players" that used to win multi big tourneys are history and they ONLY did it in the past (more then 5 yrs. ago) because the numbers and skill level was limited.
These days within 3yrs and some good study a player can get 20yrs worth of skill online.
The only time your going to see the "celebrity players" win BIG tourneys anymore is when it's invitational and they can control the field.
I think that once you reach a certain level as most do within 3 - 5yrs now IT"S PURE LUCK !!!!!!!
There are so truth to his opinions. As an online poker site, it's on their best interest to keep as many players happy as possible. Therefore, they want to distribute the people as equal as possbile, while they take their 5% cut. If you play online poker, you know what I mean. If they host decided you win too much, they will give you a sting of can't fold hands and make you go all in. In most case, you will lose all.
5% is a deep fee, while casino only collect a fix amount. I only play 1/2 nl in casino, and they collected $4 max.