Good place to heckle and shame the newb (fx)

Quote from Kassz007:

Very long. Will likely take weeks to read through it all, longer if you truly try to learn and absorp the info.
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It's very interesting so far. I'm slowly reading and trying to understand - on page 5 now.

What I don't get, and haven't even been able to understand, is that there's this one camp of people that are all about systems and mechanical trading. It makes perfect sense that those wouldn't be reliable long term because markets change and they move unpredictably. So there's this other camp (which he seems to be a part of) that says you need to also feel the market, which would be discretionary trading. Who's right? Neither? Both?

I don't like the idea of purely mechanical trading. It leaves one with no feel for and understanding of the market, just a spreadsheet full of probabilities and actions taken on the basis of historical data that has nothing to do with NOW (as he points out). When the market changes, the system is shot. On the other hand, discretionary trading can get emotional and leave one always second guessing oneself (don't ask how I know).

Is the answer something in between? It's all very confusing.
 
Quote from AyeYo:

It's very interesting so far. I'm slowly reading and trying to understand - on page 5 now.

What I don't get, and haven't even been able to understand, is that there's this one camp of people that are all about systems and mechanical trading. It makes perfect sense that those wouldn't be reliable long term because markets change and they move unpredictably. So there's this other camp (which he seems to be a part of) that says you need to also feel the market, which would be discretionary trading. Who's right? Neither? Both?

I don't like the idea of purely mechanical trading. It leaves one with no feel for and understanding of the market, just a spreadsheet full of probabilities and actions taken on the basis of historical data that has nothing to do with NOW (as he points out). When the market changes, the system is shot. On the other hand, discretionary trading can get emotional and leave one always second guessing oneself (don't ask how I know).

Is the answer something in between? It's all very confusing.
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I think your getting it. I'm of the belief that the answer is somewhere in between. The thread is confusing at first, but as you keep reading more and more sinks in. He does get more specific as the thread goes on regarding money management etc.

One thing which may suprise you (it suprised me) is that he strongly emphasizes NOT using stop losses. From his experience as a dealer, he confirms that banks will sweep major areas to intentionally hit common stop loss point, and subsequently take the other side of the trade. Instead of stop losses he emphasizes babysitting each trade, continuously drilling down to the lower time frames to get a feel for the direction.
 
Quote from Kassz007:

Instead of stop losses he emphasizes babysitting each trade, continuously drilling down to the lower time frames to get a feel for the direction.
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Hopefully he goes in depth on this eventually, because I don't understand it.

So you don't use a stop loss, ok, that's all well and good. But I'm still going to have a mental stop point. If they go stop sweeping, the price is still going to go by my mental stop area and I'm going to cash out.

I don't see how this can be avoided, unless you can somehow tell the difference between a fake out and a real move. Even then, that's a hefty call to make, because if you're wrong you might be in for a long, painful ride.


And is it me or does his English get worse the longer the thread goes on? lol
 
Maybe this has something to do with it:


"a bad position in the 5 min plays can be made good in the hourly plays, and the latter can be made in 5 Hrsly and so forth."


That's what I ended up doing earlier with my two large (unrealized) losers than turned into large winners. What looked like doomed losers on the 15 min chart ended up looking like winners on the 2 hour chart, and that's exactly what happened. That's still a dangerous game to play though. Hopefully he gets more in-depth.
 
Same cycle continuing. Waiting 2-3 hours for a good setup, not pulling the trigger when it happens, watching it play out perfectly, walking away and going to work without a penny to show for the effort/wasted time.

I guess the only progress is that I don't get mad anymore. Whether that's good or not I don't know. The uncaring/defeatist attitude really isn't much better. It doesn't lead to revenge trading, but it certainly doesn't promote any desire to do anything different tomorrow.

However, I am off today - so with the good, big winner setups out of the way, I'll feel free to take the piss poor, losing setups all day long.
 
Quote from AyeYo:

Maybe this has something to do with it:


"a bad position in the 5 min plays can be made good in the hourly plays, and the latter can be made in 5 Hrsly and so forth."


That's what I ended up doing earlier with my two large (unrealized) losers than turned into large winners. What looked like doomed losers on the 15 min chart ended up looking like winners on the 2 hour chart, and that's exactly what happened. That's still a dangerous game to play though. Hopefully he gets more in-depth.
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Very dangerous indeed, which he acknowledges. He advocates no stop loss at all, mental or otherwise. The basic idea is if your analysis says go short and the market moves against you, use that to average up as opposed to getting out of the trade and booking a loss. You must be flexible however. If you realize your analysis was wrong or if conditions change, you must exit the trade immediately.

These are not hard and fast rules obviously, and not everyone has that big of an appetite for risk, but I brought up the thread to emphasize that large banks do indeed stop hunt at major support/resistance areas.
 
Quote from Kassz007:

Very dangerous indeed, which he acknowledges. He advocates no stop loss at all, mental or otherwise. The basic idea is if your analysis says go short and the market moves against you, use that to average up as opposed to getting out of the trade and booking a loss. You must be flexible however. If you realize your analysis was wrong or if conditions change, you must exit the trade immediately.

These are not hard and fast rules obviously, and not everyone has that big of an appetite for risk, but I brought up the thread to emphasize that large banks do indeed stop hunt at major support/resistance areas.
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It's all very interesting. I can understand what he's saying. Why pick a specific number if you can develop a feel for the market and know when the direction has changed? I suppose it's just a matter of getting to that place - something most probably never will.

Anywho... as stated before, I missed the good stuff this morning, so of course the first trade I take when I come back isn't so good....

Short - GBP/USD 1.62754 x1

Was apparently early on that one, or maybe just flat out wrong. I suppose there's only so many good calls in a day, and when you don't take any of them you get what's left - the bad ones.

4 hour chart trend is still down, so I'm still deciding on a stop point. Take profit target is a whopping 15 pips.
 
Well this is interesting. I had heard of forex.com changing entry price on people, but I thought that was a little too bold and ridiculous. Turns out it's true.

As evidenced by above, and what I have written down in front of me (based off my confirmed completed deal price at the time), my short was taken at 1.62754.

It now shows my position at 1.627400. How interesting.

Any explanation for this aside from outright fraud? And, yes, 1.62754 was shown as my actual completed position, it was not just the price I hit sell at.


Regardless...

Probably could/should have let this run longer, but it's coming up to pretty solid support on the 15 min and I don't feel like babysitting another battle.

Covered - USD/GBP 1.626400
10 pips


Which puts me at:

Week 3 Day 1
+37 pips

Record of 11/5/1
 
Stay focused on your trades and properly maintaining risk control. Don't stress about stop running but investigate it with an open mind if you're suspecting such.

Keep in mind that there are a LOT of losing traders out there that will blame everyone but themselves for setting stops too close, being stopped out on a spike, etc. With 90% of them being losers, that's a lot of bullshit floating around the web (fxsol is a scam, oanda is a scam, forex.com is a scam, etc...they'll complain to any and every forum they can).

IMO, if price comes within 3-5 points of my SL, I consider it gone, no questions asked. I understand there is volatility and spikes that charts may not show, random acts of God that I don't understand, etc...so I ensure that when my SL is hit, it's because I want out...not that it was too close to a reversal and I JUST missed the big move.

Trust your broker, trust your stops. You don't need any more voices of fear in the back of your head right now.

If you think you have an issue with your broker running stops on an $8 trade, call and talk with them. Don't let the fear of stops being run manage your trades.

Good work this week Aye, keep it up.
 
Quote from sam0182:

If you think you have an issue with your broker running stops on an $8 trade, call and talk with them. Don't let the fear of stops being run manage your trades.

Good work this week Aye, keep it up.
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Very good point. lol I keep telling myself they don't care about my chump change.

Thank you for the encouragment, let's hope the good week continues.
 
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