Nice chart, Wallace. I think I get the difference in our outlooks. I have been a buyer since 1992, and look forward to the next 20 years of your chart. Also, and purely to be argumentative, what gold looks like depends on where you live. The second from the bottom study on my chart is the price in Euros. So if that's what you pay for gold in, the price is rising.
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gold's H&S top
- Thread starter Wallace
- Start date
Quote from sledged:
Call me too much of a contrarian but isnt this so obvious that its been baked in a long time ago?
With all the problems starting to surface around the world wont some money start flowing back into dollars soon?
It could certainly happen, but the Fed is engaging in policy that devalues the currency. Until there's a fundamental shift in that, I consider the longer term trend in gold to remain up...not straight up, but still up.
Quote from Wallace:
Arthur Deco and SWScapital: I've been known to be wrong ahem, but see attached
a longer time period, looks like 5 waves to me
I hadn't posted it but this is the price top I had in mind $1364
Actually I hope your right...but fear you are wrong. Nothing would make me happier than to add to my physical holdings at lower prices.
Quote from JSSPMK:
Hold on there matey, it wouldn't take 'much' for Dollar to strengthen. For instance - further QE in Europe as bailout of PiIgBS (B 4 Belgium) is estimated to be well over 1.5 trillion Euros (around 2t US). Then we have Korea conflict - cash is King. Technically USD is in a pennant with above target being around 88 (currently 81). If inflation was to edge higher then short term interest rates would have to rise which pretty much means Dollar up further.
No doubt, there are variables that can temporarily push the dollar up, but I still think all things considered, gold will be higher in a year than it is today. I don't think any Korean conflict will be a reason to sell gold and rush to fiat. As far as real inflation goes, I see gas, groceries, medical costs higher than last year...yet Ben says there's deflation (I concede there is deflation in housing).
Based on the economy, I'd say the fed is either inept or it just lacks creativity and courage. If QE1 didn't achieve it's objective, I have no reason to believe QE2 will show different results. Nobody knows how it will all play out, but it's good to get different thoughts on the table for consideration.
Quote from riaamaan:
No doubt, there are variables that can temporarily push the dollar up, but I still think all things considered, gold will be higher in a year than it is today. I don't think any Korean conflict will be a reason to sell gold and rush to fiat. As far as real inflation goes, I see gas, groceries, medical costs higher than last year...yet Ben says there's deflation (I concede there is deflation in housing).
Based on the economy, I'd say the fed is either inept or it just lacks creativity and courage. If QE1 didn't achieve it's objective, I have no reason to believe QE2 will show different results. Nobody knows how it will all play out, but it's good to get different thoughts on the table for consideration.
I didn't imply that gold ought to downtrend (retrace perhaps), so no disagreement there. But 'Dollar down' is what I opposed.
Secondly there is no deflation in housing. The housing bubble has popped, just like .com did, just like Japan's bubbles burst. But that doesn't constitute deflation. If prices rise dramatically via extreme demand & then subsequently crash why is that deflation? Mediabanksterspoliticanos will try & sell us this notion - deflation is bad, yet it is inflation which is worse, much worse, because it is a form of stealth tax on your savings as buying power is reduced. So what is the purpose of QE? It is a matter of belief. I believe that the main purpose is to create inflation & by doing so creating a inflation based debt default. Another real bubble is in bonds where investors will stand to lose value of their holdings dramatically as governments in USA, UK & Eurozone participate in QE & by doing so create inflation.
So that further strengthens the case for buying gold, not selling it.
my previous analysis of the US$ was a move to 74 by the year end, and 70 or so at
the end of the q1 beginning of q2
when the $ dropped to 74.60 on Friday Oct 22/10 , it changed my opinion that we are
now in a new $ bull market. I don't know who or how the price got down there but it
was imo a radical change
the attached pdf is from my journal 'Wallace Euro Trades' http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=210850
and includes a Weekly $ chart and Daily eurusd chart in particular that coincidentally
shows imo another major H&S formation
what this all means is that incidentally, the gold rally is over
thing is the US can no longer weaken the $ given what's coming up next year for the
EU. one Telegraph reporter's blog related discussion whether the collapse would be
in the 2nd or 3rd quarter - the collapse referring to the default of some if not all of the
PIIGS + Belgium and the UK
I'm not generally a fundamental but a chartist, tho I do pay attention to changes in the
interest rate, NFP, however what's happening in the EU and their debts cannot be
ignored and has to be included in one's analysis, and what's happening is at RED ALERT
the end of the q1 beginning of q2
when the $ dropped to 74.60 on Friday Oct 22/10 , it changed my opinion that we are
now in a new $ bull market. I don't know who or how the price got down there but it
was imo a radical change
the attached pdf is from my journal 'Wallace Euro Trades' http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=210850
and includes a Weekly $ chart and Daily eurusd chart in particular that coincidentally
shows imo another major H&S formation
what this all means is that incidentally, the gold rally is over
thing is the US can no longer weaken the $ given what's coming up next year for the
EU. one Telegraph reporter's blog related discussion whether the collapse would be
in the 2nd or 3rd quarter - the collapse referring to the default of some if not all of the
PIIGS + Belgium and the UK
I'm not generally a fundamental but a chartist, tho I do pay attention to changes in the
interest rate, NFP, however what's happening in the EU and their debts cannot be
ignored and has to be included in one's analysis, and what's happening is at RED ALERT
Attachments
Quote from Arthur Deco:
Kindly excuse the digression, but might I ask why you are holding physical? Don't trust the ETFs? Don't trust the Gubmint?
I live in the USA. I`m awash in usd. My paycheck comes to me in usd and everything I own is priced in usd. The way I see it, it makes sense to own a tangible alternative currency/asset that is portable and accepted worldwide.
Its not that I dont trust the ETF`s. They just dont accomplish my goals. And i`m pretty sure I would be tempted to trade them around instead of just DCA`ing every month.
Thanks for replying, and I get it. Recently I bought ten GLD (big spender) just to make myself watch it with the possibility in mind of converting some physical to GLD. The idea being that in minor crisis I could ditch the GLD quickly with much smaller spread. Of course I would keep some physical for a major disaster. I have been selling some of my older foreign coins to profit from the present price and to convert to US coins which in an emergency might be more attractive than the "funny money" coins I love so much better. Also keeping some silver. And a LOT of lead.