Goldman Sachs predicts $105 crude

[cknucks]

I reading the research report, and people are missing a big thing.

They estimate that super-spike potential WTI prices are:
2005e --> $50
2006e --> $75
2007e --> $105
2008e --> $75
2009e --> $50
2010e --> $30

The newsies have been leaving people with the impression that CL'll hit $105 this year. I have not heard any media reports that said that the GS "year 2007 forecast" for crude is $105.

 

[SteveD]

I saw an interview with Lee Raymond and he said oil was unsustainable at the present price of $50/bbl.

Do you know who he is???

Anyone? Anyone?

SteveD

 

[bdon]

This is a pretty realistic prediction given the 2007 timeline. Doesn't mean oil won't see $40 first. In this biz timing your entry is everything.

 

[Trader5287]

Quote from SteveD:

I saw an interview with Lee Raymond and he said oil was unsustainable at the present price of $50/bbl.

Do you know who he is???

Anyone? Anyone?

SteveD

CEO ExxonMobil. It was about 7 biz days ago.

Geo.

 

[estrader]

Quote from DonCorleone:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...DFE-4CC6-BDC2-FCB6BCA84E57}&siteid=mktw&dist=

could this be the top? not that it can't go higher from here, but last time one of these "analysts" predicted a ridiculously high price in a sector, the dotcom bust occurred. i guess we'll wait 'n see, eh?

Yeah. GS also recommended to buy stocks in March 2001, when the first little dip occurred. 4 Years later we just got back to where we were. GS is BS.

 

[libertad]

Oh yeah...

and here are some baseball scores...

7 to 2
5 to 6
1 to 0

Whatever GS does...it will be a legal means to an end.....

They will dance away with some bucks ...in some fashion....

This guy would do well in Hollywood...

lol

 

[dougcs]

Quote from nealvan:

Realistically with the growth rate (and mega potential) from China/India I don't think it's impossible to see $100 a barrel.. Factor in terrorism/safety issues and technology inefficientcies there is alot of room for growth in the oil especially in naturally gas with the winters becoming colder..

I actually think the rise in price is a good thing because it would force the masses to think alternatively and that would advance our civilization... Aside from that I belive that the trend is very stong and don't be supprised to see +$60 this month... Investors just got a little scared when they heard the improving inventories report but the main trend quickly corrected as expected.

Don't rely on dead dinasaurs..

But in reality there are enourmous amounts of oil already discovered but not in production. For example, the heavy oil reserves in Canada and in the Orinico basin are many times larger than the reserves Saudi Arabia claims to have. Putting it into production is very capital intensive, production costs run about 15/bbl and refineries are needed to run it unless it undergoes further processing; but it is there and all it takes is money and time to get it into your SUVs tank.

Do a google for syncrude to get started if you are looking for more info on it.

Canadian Oil Sands (COS-UN.TO) and Suncor (SU) are two names in this biz.

web links to them:

http://www.suncor.com/default.aspx?ID=1
http://www.cos-trust.com/

And from the Canadian Oil Sands Discovery Centre:

"Alberta's oil sands contain the biggest known reserve of oil in the world. An estimated 1.7 to 2.5 trillion barrels of oil are trapped in a complex mixture of sand, water and clay..."

http://www.oilsandsdiscovery.com/

DS

 

[SteveD]

The sarcastic point I was trying to make is: Who do you think knows more about the oil business? A Goldman analysis or the CEO of the largest actual USER of the oil??

SteveD

 

[mokwit]

The report: http://www.oilcast.com/pdfs/superspike.pdf

 

[danoXP]

Oil 1983 to present - CL futures contract

Quote from DonCorleone:

just out of curiosity, anyone have a long term chart of oil prices? elliott wave-wise, are we still in first wave or now in third wave? TIA