Pretty Fuc$ing sad isnt it, just 6 months ago $200 oil was the outlook because demand was out of control, how the Fu$k could anyone not see oil in a damn bubble, I mean it was right in front of you, now after oil has fallen over $100 a barrel they come out with a $45 a barrel call for 2009, great work guys, keep it up. Demand for oil will continue to drop as this recession grows deeper and deeper, I would not be surprised at all to see $25 oil in the 1st half of 2009, in the last year along Americans have driven 9 Billion less miles, demand will continue to head south as unemployment rises and demand around the globe drops significantly, it will take years before oil sees $100 again and $200 probably not for another decade or 2, maybe never as newer technologies come about.
UPDATE 2-Goldman, once warning of $200 oil, sees $45 in 2009
Fri Dec 12, 2008 5:37am EST
SINGAPORE/LONDON, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs' (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) energy equity research team, which predicted a crude oil spike to $200 a barrel earlier this year, slashed on Friday its 2009 forecast to just $45 as demand deteriorates.
The team led by Arjun Murti, who made waves in 2005 by calling crude's ascent to $100, also said prices would bottom out early next year and that a shift from "demand destruction" to "supply destruction" would ultimately revive oil's rally.
In a separate report, Goldman's commodities research team also cut its 2009 forecast to an average $45 and predicted world oil demand would fall by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) and help drive oil prices down to $30 a barrel in the first quarter.
"We expect that an additional 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of OPEC supply cuts will be required in 2009, along with a 600,000 bpd reduction in Non-OPEC production, in order to rebalance the market," the team led by Jeffrey Currie wrote.
But both groups saw prices recovering in the near term.
Murti's team predicted a return to positive demand growth and shrinking non-OPEC supply would lift prices to $70 a barrel by 2010 and to $105 by 2012.
"We do not believe oil markets are on-track for a decade-plus period of weakness like seen in the 1980s and 1990s," they wrote.
Oil has collapsed more than $100 from its July peak as the dawning of a global recession drives demand lower in major economies.
But analysts and officials are warning that a prolonged period of cheap prices could set the stage for another rally if new investment is halted.
U.S. oil prices CLc1 fell more than $2 a barrel to below $46 on Friday after a bailout plan for struggling U.S. auto makers stalled this week's tenous recovery from a four-year low.
UPDATE 2-Goldman, once warning of $200 oil, sees $45 in 2009
Fri Dec 12, 2008 5:37am EST
SINGAPORE/LONDON, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs' (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) energy equity research team, which predicted a crude oil spike to $200 a barrel earlier this year, slashed on Friday its 2009 forecast to just $45 as demand deteriorates.
The team led by Arjun Murti, who made waves in 2005 by calling crude's ascent to $100, also said prices would bottom out early next year and that a shift from "demand destruction" to "supply destruction" would ultimately revive oil's rally.
In a separate report, Goldman's commodities research team also cut its 2009 forecast to an average $45 and predicted world oil demand would fall by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) and help drive oil prices down to $30 a barrel in the first quarter.
"We expect that an additional 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of OPEC supply cuts will be required in 2009, along with a 600,000 bpd reduction in Non-OPEC production, in order to rebalance the market," the team led by Jeffrey Currie wrote.
But both groups saw prices recovering in the near term.
Murti's team predicted a return to positive demand growth and shrinking non-OPEC supply would lift prices to $70 a barrel by 2010 and to $105 by 2012.
"We do not believe oil markets are on-track for a decade-plus period of weakness like seen in the 1980s and 1990s," they wrote.
Oil has collapsed more than $100 from its July peak as the dawning of a global recession drives demand lower in major economies.
But analysts and officials are warning that a prolonged period of cheap prices could set the stage for another rally if new investment is halted.
U.S. oil prices CLc1 fell more than $2 a barrel to below $46 on Friday after a bailout plan for struggling U.S. auto makers stalled this week's tenous recovery from a four-year low.
