Gas is finally over $4.00 near me, today a friend of mine went to fill up, he said the guy at the station told him he was lucky to get the price he did because he said at the end of the day gas prices were going to move up another .10 a gallon, I laughed when I heard this. If you really think an economy thats already in a recession can handle 100+ oil and over $4.00 at the pump you are a fool. Today people are predicting 150-200 a barrel, Pure SPECULATION, thats ALL THIS RUN IS BASED ON, this reminds me of every other single bubble, all the hype and the outrageous predictions on how high oil will go is just a becoming a game now. This is a bubble, oil and the rest of the commodities are going to correct EXTREMELY HARD, Just like every bubble ALWAYS does...
Goldman: Oil $150-200 in 24 months
- Thread starter turkeyneck
- Start date
More oil in Alaska than in Saudi Arabia:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3340274697167011147
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3340274697167011147
I agree to most what you say. People take it as given that oil will never come down again and there is no risc speculating on even higher prices. This is typical for a bubble and I think we are close to the top now.
Most trend following hedge-funds have to own oil now and once this train reverses the drop could be very fast and heavy.
Fluorescent light bulbs is a good alternate, the only flaw to this is the cost of the bulb. Yes, you are saving energy, but you are not saving the cost.
I do use fluorescent for all my lightings.
I do use fluorescent for all my lightings.
May 7, 2008, 12:24AM
Feds predict $3.73 at the pump in June
By DAVID IVANOVICH and BRETT CLANTON
Oil surged to yet another record Tuesday, with Goldman Sachs warning of a possible "super-spike" to $200 a barrel and federal energy forecasters predicting $3.73-a-gallon gas as Americans head for summer vacation.
Oil futures smashed through $122 a barrel for a time Tuesday, continuing a spectacular price trajectory that has confounded many longtime oil market watchers.
"When's a bubble too big? You just don't know," noted Kyle Cooper, director of research for IAF Advisors in Houston. "What's going to cause it to pop? You just don't know.
"Can it continue higher? Sure," Cooper said.
Goldman Sachs energy analysts helped propel oil prices higher Tuesday by raising the prospect of $150, even $200 oil over the next six to 24 months.
"We believe the current energy crisis may be coming to a head, as a lack of adequate supply growth is becoming apparent and resulting in needed demand rationing" in the United States and other industrialized nations, Goldman Sachs, led by Arjun Murti, said in a report.
Mohamed Hamel, head of the energy studies department at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said crude oil is currently sending "distorted price signals" primarily due to the weak dollar and growth in the futures markets.
Appearing at the Offshore Technology Conference at Reliant Park, Hamel argued that while world energy supplies remain "plentiful" even as global demand rises, the traditional laws that governed energy prices in the past have changed.
"Clearly, elements other than supply and demand are at play now," Hamel said.
'Where is the excess?'
But Goldman Sachs analysts argued that oil's $50-a-barrel rise over the last 10 months â despite a slowing U.S. economy â is "fundamentally justified" and not just a matter of speculative excess.
"If it is an excessive oil price, where is the excess supply?" the analysts asked.
"Inventory levels look normal and just about all of industry â both non-OPEC and OPEC â are badly missing production forecasts."
Taking on the conventional wisdom that has developed on Capitol Hill â and much of Main Street â the Goldman Sachs analysts defended the oft-criticized energy speculators who, they insisted, "should be applauded for speeding up the message to both oil companies and consumers that energy markets are tight."
OPEC's oil production, despite the high prices, actually fell slightly in April, with output in Nigeria dropping to its lowest level in a decade, according to a Bloomberg News survey. And even with the high price environment, world oil consumption continues to rise. The U.S. Energy Information Administration Tuesday estimated the world's thirst for crude would grow by 1.2 million barrels a day this year.
With that rising demand and talk of $200 oil, light, sweet crude for June delivery touched $122.73 a barrel Tuesday before settling back at $121.84 â still a record close â and up $1.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Crude's dizzying rise prompted the Energy Information Administration Tuesday to ratchet upward its estimate for how much motorists are likely to be paying to fill up when prices hit their peak in June.
Summer price projections
The agency now projects Americans will pay on average $3.73 for regular unleaded in June and $3.66 a gallon over the six-month period from April through September.
Just a month ago, the Energy Information Administration was estimating prices at the pump would top out at $3.60 a gallon this spring.
On Tuesday, regular unleaded was selling nationwide for $3.61 a gallon, according to AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report.
In Houston, the average was just under $3.50 a gallon, off a fraction of a penny from the high set last week, according to AAA, using data provided by the Oil Price Information Service. For the year, the nation's drivers will pay an estimated $3.52 a gallon, up 71 cents from the average for 2007, the Energy Information Administration said.
National demand falling
The current turmoil in energy markets signals that an energy cycle is nearing a breaking point similar to periods in the past when high energy prices brought change in technology and behavior, argues Peter Tertzakian, chief energy economist of ARC Financial Corp. and author of the book A Thousand Barrels A Second: The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges Facing an Energy Dependent World.
With the higher gas prices and stalled U.S. economy, U.S. petroleum consumption is expected to fall by about 190,000 barrels a day this year, the Energy Information Administration said.
Feds predict $3.73 at the pump in June
By DAVID IVANOVICH and BRETT CLANTON
Oil surged to yet another record Tuesday, with Goldman Sachs warning of a possible "super-spike" to $200 a barrel and federal energy forecasters predicting $3.73-a-gallon gas as Americans head for summer vacation.
Oil futures smashed through $122 a barrel for a time Tuesday, continuing a spectacular price trajectory that has confounded many longtime oil market watchers.
"When's a bubble too big? You just don't know," noted Kyle Cooper, director of research for IAF Advisors in Houston. "What's going to cause it to pop? You just don't know.
"Can it continue higher? Sure," Cooper said.
Goldman Sachs energy analysts helped propel oil prices higher Tuesday by raising the prospect of $150, even $200 oil over the next six to 24 months.
"We believe the current energy crisis may be coming to a head, as a lack of adequate supply growth is becoming apparent and resulting in needed demand rationing" in the United States and other industrialized nations, Goldman Sachs, led by Arjun Murti, said in a report.
Mohamed Hamel, head of the energy studies department at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said crude oil is currently sending "distorted price signals" primarily due to the weak dollar and growth in the futures markets.
Appearing at the Offshore Technology Conference at Reliant Park, Hamel argued that while world energy supplies remain "plentiful" even as global demand rises, the traditional laws that governed energy prices in the past have changed.
"Clearly, elements other than supply and demand are at play now," Hamel said.
'Where is the excess?'
But Goldman Sachs analysts argued that oil's $50-a-barrel rise over the last 10 months â despite a slowing U.S. economy â is "fundamentally justified" and not just a matter of speculative excess.
"If it is an excessive oil price, where is the excess supply?" the analysts asked.
"Inventory levels look normal and just about all of industry â both non-OPEC and OPEC â are badly missing production forecasts."
Taking on the conventional wisdom that has developed on Capitol Hill â and much of Main Street â the Goldman Sachs analysts defended the oft-criticized energy speculators who, they insisted, "should be applauded for speeding up the message to both oil companies and consumers that energy markets are tight."
OPEC's oil production, despite the high prices, actually fell slightly in April, with output in Nigeria dropping to its lowest level in a decade, according to a Bloomberg News survey. And even with the high price environment, world oil consumption continues to rise. The U.S. Energy Information Administration Tuesday estimated the world's thirst for crude would grow by 1.2 million barrels a day this year.
With that rising demand and talk of $200 oil, light, sweet crude for June delivery touched $122.73 a barrel Tuesday before settling back at $121.84 â still a record close â and up $1.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Crude's dizzying rise prompted the Energy Information Administration Tuesday to ratchet upward its estimate for how much motorists are likely to be paying to fill up when prices hit their peak in June.
Summer price projections
The agency now projects Americans will pay on average $3.73 for regular unleaded in June and $3.66 a gallon over the six-month period from April through September.
Just a month ago, the Energy Information Administration was estimating prices at the pump would top out at $3.60 a gallon this spring.
On Tuesday, regular unleaded was selling nationwide for $3.61 a gallon, according to AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report.
In Houston, the average was just under $3.50 a gallon, off a fraction of a penny from the high set last week, according to AAA, using data provided by the Oil Price Information Service. For the year, the nation's drivers will pay an estimated $3.52 a gallon, up 71 cents from the average for 2007, the Energy Information Administration said.
National demand falling
The current turmoil in energy markets signals that an energy cycle is nearing a breaking point similar to periods in the past when high energy prices brought change in technology and behavior, argues Peter Tertzakian, chief energy economist of ARC Financial Corp. and author of the book A Thousand Barrels A Second: The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges Facing an Energy Dependent World.
With the higher gas prices and stalled U.S. economy, U.S. petroleum consumption is expected to fall by about 190,000 barrels a day this year, the Energy Information Administration said.
:eek: