Goldman: Oil $150-200 in 24 months
- Thread starter turkeyneck
- Start date
I certainly don't disagree with you that the FED has played a significant role. The buyers of commodities in this bull market surely don't object. But why has crude oil spiked up ridiculously high? The price has tripled since around 2002 (from $40+ to now over $120). Does the increased money suppy account for such a dramatic increase alone, or even with other fundamentals? I think that speculation must play a substantial role as well in order for prices to triple within a matter of six years.
One theory is off [US] exchange price manipulation via the ICE West Texas contract.
Also FED by making available $200Bn to brokers allows them to continue to finance their own and Hedge Fund clients speculation. MF demanding 90% margin signalled a natural end to funds being available for this speculation. The FED acted literally within HOURS to allow it to continue by extending thae TAF to brokers and thus their trading and Prime Brokerage arms. Bernanke is directly responsible for the high oil price by preventing a natural end of cycle liquidity squeeze driven correction through his unnatural liquidity provision.
Stock manipulators put out a seemingly outrageous target which the stocks meets e.g. USD 100 and then after building that confidence put out another outrageous target e.g. USD 200 and then slaughter the buyers on the way up to that [possibly never reached] target. Sound familiar? It may welll do with hindsight. Political [as in mob anger] pressure is mounting to rein in the fun and games, so the game has to be brought to a close.
Also FED by making available $200Bn to brokers allows them to continue to finance their own and Hedge Fund clients speculation. MF demanding 90% margin signalled a natural end to funds being available for this speculation. The FED acted literally within HOURS to allow it to continue by extending thae TAF to brokers and thus their trading and Prime Brokerage arms. Bernanke is directly responsible for the high oil price by preventing a natural end of cycle liquidity squeeze driven correction through his unnatural liquidity provision.
Stock manipulators put out a seemingly outrageous target which the stocks meets e.g. USD 100 and then after building that confidence put out another outrageous target e.g. USD 200 and then slaughter the buyers on the way up to that [possibly never reached] target. Sound familiar? It may welll do with hindsight. Political [as in mob anger] pressure is mounting to rein in the fun and games, so the game has to be brought to a close.
the rest of the world is tired of having devalued dollars shoved down their collective throats.
with record trade deficts, everyone else is sensing that the wheels are almost off the cart.
where is all the blame for speculators driving up the price of the 10 year trez.
there should be massive bitching about specs. gunning bond prices. to levels where the average Joe12Pack cant get a decent return on his Monopoly money.
where is that bitching?
with record trade deficts, everyone else is sensing that the wheels are almost off the cart.
where is all the blame for speculators driving up the price of the 10 year trez.
there should be massive bitching about specs. gunning bond prices. to levels where the average Joe12Pack cant get a decent return on his Monopoly money.
where is that bitching?
I'll call a top in oil at no higher a buck twenty-five.
Preserve this quote and rub it in my face if I'm wrong.
Watch as the fed shores up the USD near term, in this election year, and the Bush Admin aggressively twists arms behind the scenes to finally get more crude on the open market.
If there's one thing that will seal the fate on a U.S. recession, it's $4+ gasoline and $300 heating bills.
Preserve this quote and rub it in my face if I'm wrong.
Watch as the fed shores up the USD near term, in this election year, and the Bush Admin aggressively twists arms behind the scenes to finally get more crude on the open market.
If there's one thing that will seal the fate on a U.S. recession, it's $4+ gasoline and $300 heating bills.
I will make a prediction for you all to hold on to also. Oil prices will peak after the election and after the new president endorses a windfall profit tax on producers. Oil prices will spike, due to belief that producers will not have the incentive to produce more and discover new fields however, they will and the first signs of weakness should be sold.