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Goldman loses money on just one trading day in Q3.
- Thread starter Ivanovich
- Start date
Quote from krazykarl:
But again we're comparing baseball to finance. As much as we'd like it to be an apples-to-apples comparison they are vastly different. I was only comparing one aspect: the fact that one organization can be successful a statistically inordinate number of times.
This is true to a certain degree...
When a person wins the jackpot in the lottery it defies statistical probability...but when a person wins the jackpot in the lottery 9 times out of 10, the only logical conclusion is corruption.
Quote from Kassz007:
This is true to a certain degree...
When a person wins the jackpot in the lottery it defies statistical probability...but when a person wins the jackpot in the lottery 9 times out of 10, the only logical conclusion is corruption.
So where do you draw the line? 4 out of ten? 6 out of ten? 8?
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
Do you not understand the difference between being a market maker and being a speculator? How many losing days do you think Oanda has? I'd bet their winning % is even higher than Goldman's. It's not like GS is scalping e-mini's. Their primary trading biz is making markets for customers in illiquid fixed income securities and derivatives, program trading, currency swaps -all trades with an embedded few to several tick edge. So yes by the random law of averages if one gets edge, edge, edge they will print $, $, $......
Did you read the link, Pabst, to determine what they were referring to when they said "winning trades"?
Quote from krazykarl:
So where do you draw the line? 4 out of ten? 6 out of ten? 8?
There is no need to draw a definitive line. If I told you I won the lottery 1 time you'd say "you sure are lucky". If I told you I won the lottery 5 times you'd say "you sure are lucky, something smells rather fishy here". If I told you I won the lottery 9 times out of 10, you'd say "that's not possible - you cheated somehow".
Huh? So if the odds of a baseball player making $25mil in a year is 1 in 100 million I'd deduce A-Rod is "cheating" because he's made 20mil 10 consecutive years?
Or if a local in the bond pit goes several months in a row without a losing day he must be stealing?
The article makes some asinine statistical errors. If a dealer has an edge than his odds of making money are not 50% but rather higher. And if one has infinite flow than his odds are extremely favorable.
In other words if you have a 55/45 edge per trade but make just 1 trade a day than we'd expect you to make money 55% of sampled trading days. What if you have a 55/45 edge but make 10,000 trades a day? We'd then expect you'd make money virtually every day, eh?
So then answer me. How many losing days does Oanda have? Or Harrah's? Or a disciplined floor trader?
Comparing the profitability of a speculator or a gambler to a market maker or a casino is akin to comparing a 16 inch softball player to Albert Pujols. Other than everyone is swing a bat not much commonality....
Or if a local in the bond pit goes several months in a row without a losing day he must be stealing?
The article makes some asinine statistical errors. If a dealer has an edge than his odds of making money are not 50% but rather higher. And if one has infinite flow than his odds are extremely favorable.
In other words if you have a 55/45 edge per trade but make just 1 trade a day than we'd expect you to make money 55% of sampled trading days. What if you have a 55/45 edge but make 10,000 trades a day? We'd then expect you'd make money virtually every day, eh?
So then answer me. How many losing days does Oanda have? Or Harrah's? Or a disciplined floor trader?
Comparing the profitability of a speculator or a gambler to a market maker or a casino is akin to comparing a 16 inch softball player to Albert Pujols. Other than everyone is swing a bat not much commonality....
Quote from Kassz007:
There is no need to draw a definitive line. If I told you I won the lottery 1 time you'd say "you sure are lucky". If I told you I won the lottery 5 times you'd say "you sure are lucky, something smells rather fishy here". If I told you I won the lottery 9 times out of 10, you'd say "that's not possible - you cheated somehow".
I think we might be defining trading wrong.
GS makes ridiculous money creating products that they sell to the Fed and other idiots. that spread is massive
then they get FREE money from the Fed and can do the carry trade.
now, let's say they do sell 1,000 ES and lose.
I bet that ES trade doesn't eat up the other profits.
so, for the day, profitable.
GS makes ridiculous money creating products that they sell to the Fed and other idiots. that spread is massive
then they get FREE money from the Fed and can do the carry trade.
now, let's say they do sell 1,000 ES and lose.
I bet that ES trade doesn't eat up the other profits.
so, for the day, profitable.