Goldman: 3 Reasons The S&p 500 Will Decline To 1,250
- Thread starter Andromeda
- Start date
Quote from Andromeda:
http://pragcap.com/goldman-3-reasons-the-sp-will-decline-to-1250 [/QU
...which means keep on buying...duh
âKostin said there were three main reasons for his call:
1.The U.S. economy is stagnating, growing below trend.
2.In a weak economic growth environment, markets historically have a flat multiple
3.2012 is expected to see earnings growth of only 3 percent.â
Per 1, 2+% growth with negative real interest rates is net 3% ie:not below or above trend but at trend.
Per 2, His estimate of earnings growth is wrong. Would put it at high single digits.
Per 3, growth expectations are 5-8% from analysts I consider credible.
Basically his growth estimate is wildly inaccurate, and S&P earnings were up 17% last year, so there's no reason it should be so low. Happy to take the other side of his strategy, but I am more inclined to eye my large share purchase of SQQQ happening soon.
1.The U.S. economy is stagnating, growing below trend.
2.In a weak economic growth environment, markets historically have a flat multiple
3.2012 is expected to see earnings growth of only 3 percent.â
Per 1, 2+% growth with negative real interest rates is net 3% ie:not below or above trend but at trend.
Per 2, His estimate of earnings growth is wrong. Would put it at high single digits.
Per 3, growth expectations are 5-8% from analysts I consider credible.
Basically his growth estimate is wildly inaccurate, and S&P earnings were up 17% last year, so there's no reason it should be so low. Happy to take the other side of his strategy, but I am more inclined to eye my large share purchase of SQQQ happening soon.
#1 Reason: because markets are volatile in nature and 1250 isn't very far from the current price.
Why does this sort of beyond-empty prediction even get any attention?
Why does this sort of beyond-empty prediction even get any attention?
Does Goldman have any credibility left?
LMAO.Quote from piezoe:
He'll be right after the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, in the meantime he'll be Kostin you money.